UK Housing Market Update Struggling tenants will limit growth in average rents If our unemployment forecasts are correct, the rise in the number of tenants who are struggling to meet their rents may be the start of a growing trend. At the very least these figures support our... 12th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is now a good time to buy residential property as an inflation hedge? Growing fears about the inflation outlook do not improve the case for buying residential property at the present time. Given how high real house prices currently are, we think that it would be unwise... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Should the shift towards repayment mortgages be welcomed? The increased share of first-time buyers on repayment mortgages should be welcomed. The high level of interest-only lending during the boom years contributed to the unsustainable gap that opened up... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How concerned should we be about the latest drop in house-building? The fall in dwelling starts in Q3 may well be a sign that the recovery in house-building has run out of steam. If so, it raises questions about the durability of the wider economic recovery and, on... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update New survey adds to the evidence of a tightening lending market A new mortgage market survey from the charted surveyors e.surv suggests that mortgage lending volumes and average loan-to-value ratios fell further in October. While the survey has yet to be tested... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will landlords gain most from the Spending Review? Today’s Spending Review was never going to be good for the housing sector. The target for 150,000 new affordable homes to be built over the next four years represents a cut of almost 30% in affordable... 20th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What is happening to mortgage credit conditions? While mortgage credit conditions are improving for the most credit-worthy borrowers, secured lending criteria remain exceptionally tight for the broader market. 13th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What is the outlook for affordable house-building? Affordable house-building faces significant headwinds. As well as problems of economic viability, the fiscal squeeze is already weighing on starts in the affordable housing sector. These challenges... 6th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Fuss over mortgage interest rates is a red-herring Recent press comment that lenders are profiteering from the large spreads between mortgage interest rates and Bank Rate may be further evidence of the low esteem in which the financial services sector... 22nd September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update First-time buyers will be most affected by fragile labour market The recent slump in first-time buyers’ share of the mortgage market is a worrying sign of fresh weakness in the first rung of the housing market. What’s more, high unemployment among the under- 35s... 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What is the interest-only mortgage clampdown telling us? Recent press reports that some major mortgage lenders are further restricting the availability of interest-only mortgages are a fresh sign that credit conditions are tightening. 7th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How will home-owners respond to renewed signs of house price falls? As signs that the past year’s house price gains are going into reverse become more widespread, the number of active sellers in the housing market is likely to decline. But a fall in house price... 19th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are asking prices a reliable lead indicator? Yesterday’s fall in asking prices reported by Rightmove was noticeably stronger than the traditional dip normally observed in August. Admittedly, despite their timely nature the data’s track record as... 17th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Does renewed house-building explain the rise in construction output? The construction industry contributed 0.4 percentage points to the 1.1%q/q growth in GDP in the second quarter of 2010. What’s more, house-building appears to have contributed strongly to the growth... 30th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will loosening market conditions lead to house price falls? On one measure at least, the amount of unsold stock on surveyors’ books is consistent with falling house prices. With sellers now seemingly outnumbering buyers, we expect that looser market conditions... 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are the OBR’s house price forecasts too optimistic? The Office for Budget Responsibility’s house price forecasts seem to imply a structural shift in the sustainable house price to earnings ratio and a return to peak of the market mortgage servicing... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read