UK Housing Market Update Can the mortgage market recovery weather the euro-zone crisis? Mortgage lending has strengthened in recent months. But strains from the crisis in the euro-zone are now showing through in UK lenders’ funding costs, giving another reason not to expect a fully... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will the end of the stamp duty holiday signal a surge in transactions? Previous experience suggests that a 20-40% increase in transactions in the final months of the stamp duty holiday is possible. However, given that only first-time-buyers (FTBs) are eligible for the... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Buying vs. Renting: how does the choice stack up? To judge by much of the commentary surrounding the plight of “generation rent” you might conclude that anyone who can buy should do so immediately or risk being frozen out of the market. Yet even if... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How significant is the collapse in house prices in terms of gold? Taken at face value, the seven year decline in house prices expressed in gold might suggest that, relative to the precious metal, house prices are now ripe to recover. Yet in reality, we don’t think... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will valuations be restored by a period of stable house prices? If the recent pattern of flat house prices and modest income growth were to continue, it would take over a decade for the house-price-to-earnings (HPE) ratio to return to its long-run average. However... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What is holding back mortgage approvals? While restricted credit availability is clearly an important factor, until the pressure on consumer incomes eases and confidence improves, regardless of what happens to credit availability, there is... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the latest rise in net migration another positive for rents? If sustained, the latest rise in net migration should add to the upward pressures on rents over the next few years. But if the increase continues to owe as much to fewer British citizens leaving the... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Have food and energy price rises offset the benefit of rate cuts? The low level of forced selling over the past few years, which has been a key support for average house prices, owes much to the low level of mortgage interest rates. But given the squeeze on real... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are mortgage approvals still a good lead indicator for house prices? The fact that the relationship between house prices and mortgage approvals has loosened over recent years does not mean that it has lost all its value. But in the absence of fresh, sharp falls in... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are cash buyers a sign of the underlying health of the housing market? Cash buyers continue to be a key support to housing market activity levels. But we remain sceptical that this demonstrates that a lack of mortgage lending, rather than stretched valuations and... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Have borrowers benefited from lower advertised mortgage rates? According to the Bank of England, advertised tracker and two-year fixed mortgage interest rates hit an all-time low in May. Yet the growing gap between advertised rates and the average rates being... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is London still a seller's market? The strength of demand from overseas buyers is often presented as a reason why London is, and is likely to remain, a seller’s market. But the RICS survey suggests that their influence may be waning... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What does the outlook for housebuilding imply for land values? Housebuilding activity bounced back strongly in the first quarter, albeit from an extremely low base. However, we doubt that the recovery can maintain this momentum. Indeed, on balance, we believe... 20th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update House price-to-rents ratio - why the different messages? We have been asked why the house price-to-rents ratio compiled using a National Accounts measure of rents indicates that housing is close to fair value, while the Retail Prices Index measure suggests... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What does the ratio of house prices to equities tell us? We often encounter the argument that low interest rates have made valuation metrics such as the house price-to-earnings ratio less useful as a guide to the sustainability or otherwise of prevailing... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will high inflation prevent nominal house price falls? The required correction in real house prices will not be delivered via above-target inflation. With earnings growth failing to keep pace with inflation, in order to close the gap between house prices... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
