UK Housing Market Update How will housing transactions fare in 2012? At first glance, the resilience of buyer enquiries in the closing stages of 2011 is encouraging news for the housing market. Yet we are inclined to place more weight on reports that mortgage demand... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What are empty homes really telling us about the housing market? There has been a marked reduction in the number of empty homes since the housing market crash first hit, driven by a decline in the number of long-term empties. To our minds, that suggests that the... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update First thoughts on the revised Mortgage Market Review The FSA’s proposals to put a revised affordability test at the centre of the mortgage underwriting process will not dampen materially further the flow of mortgage credit from today’s subdued levels... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are high rental yields supporting house prices? One explanation for why house prices have remained fairly well supported over the past year or two is that rental yields look attractive compared to the alternatives. Yet the track record of such... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Who will protect borrowers against lower house prices? The proposal to protect lenders against the risk of fresh falls in house prices should help to boost the supply of low-deposit mortgages next year. But it is far from clear that the overall supply of... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How significant are City jobs for London's housing market? Popular perception dictates that City jobs are a crucial driver of London’s housing market. Yet there have been at least two previous occasions when significant City redundancies did not trigger house... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Can high income multiples prevent a further adjustment in house prices? By allowing buyers to bridge the substantial gap between house prices and earnings, the recovery in average income multiples on mortgage lending towards their pre-recession highs has almost certainly... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why do policymakers keep returning to long-term fixed rate mortgages? Successive policymakers, of whom the Housing Minister is the latest, have called for greater use of long-term fixed rate mortgages in the UK. The argument goes that long-term fixed rate mortgages... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is London’s outperformance built on flimsy foundations? London has been reliant on a handful of the most expensive boroughs to deliver positive house price growth over the past year. To our minds, that leaves house prices in the capital looking susceptible... 29th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the house price correction about to pick up pace? Our forecasts already envisage that the pace of house price falls will increase next year. With most of the recent downgrade to our economic forecasts accounted for by the deteriorating prospects for... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How well founded is the rise in house prices in the South? Yesterday’s report by Rightmove illustrated the huge North/South divide in average asking prices. But the fact that this North/South split is notable by its absence from the transactions data suggests... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Euro crisis to tip the UK back into recession The euro-zone debt crisis is likely to have severe adverse effects on the UK economy at a time when domestic contractionary forces are building. We now expect UK GDP growth to slow from about 0.8%... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Can the mortgage market recovery weather the euro-zone crisis? Mortgage lending has strengthened in recent months. But strains from the crisis in the euro-zone are now showing through in UK lenders’ funding costs, giving another reason not to expect a fully... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will the end of the stamp duty holiday signal a surge in transactions? Previous experience suggests that a 20-40% increase in transactions in the final months of the stamp duty holiday is possible. However, given that only first-time-buyers (FTBs) are eligible for the... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Buying vs. Renting: how does the choice stack up? To judge by much of the commentary surrounding the plight of “generation rent” you might conclude that anyone who can buy should do so immediately or risk being frozen out of the market. Yet even if... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How significant is the collapse in house prices in terms of gold? Taken at face value, the seven year decline in house prices expressed in gold might suggest that, relative to the precious metal, house prices are now ripe to recover. Yet in reality, we don’t think... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
