UK Housing Market Update House price to earnings – what is behind the alternative measures? We have been asked by several clients about the difference between our measure of the house price to earnings ratio and that reported by the Halifax. The Halifax measure suggests that house prices... 8th July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Credit Conditions survey and PMI data don’t alter weak property outlook Today’s Credit Conditions survey from the Bank of England showed that the supply of mortgage finance appears to be slowly improving, but does not change our view that further price falls are very... 2nd July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Lowering mortgage deposit requirements will not be enough Given the focus of much analysis of the housing market, a casual observer could be forgiven for thinking that the withdrawal of high loan to value mortgage products was the root cause of the slump in... 29th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Bank of England Financial Stability Report, June 2009 Property markets were not a key feature of the Bank of England’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR). However, the focus of the report, on tighter regulation in future, adds to the case for... 26th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Residential property derivatives – should we listen? The recent improvement in economic sentiment has been reflected in a shift in residential property derivative pricing. However, while we agree that house price declines in 2009 and 2010 will be... 17th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Revised economic growth outlook will not underpin house prices Yesterday, we revised up our forecasts for economic growth in the UK. Our new forecasts still leave the economy on a very weak path, which will not prevent further falls in employment and household... 9th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How significant is the rise in new buyer interest? The improvement in buyer interest in recent months has raised hopes of an imminent recovery. However, we think this is overly optimistic. When looked at in perspective, the recent upturn has been very... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Buy-to-let arrears look set to stay higher than in the wider market Figures released by the CML last week showed that mortgage arrears in the buy-to-let (BTL) market are running ahead of those in the wider market. This is a relatively new development but, over the... 22nd May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Can mortgage interest rates fall any further? Official interest rates have reached their floor, but while recent press speculation has focused on the idea that mortgage interest rates are more likely to rise than fall from here, we think there is... 14th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What will mortgage affordability look like in five years’ time? Measures of mortgage affordability are suggesting that houses are already good value. But these measures are reflecting the abnormally low current level of interest rates. When interest rates return... 7th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Property and the 2009 Budget - disappointment dominates This Budget was a holding operation which left the really tough decisions required to sort out the public finances to be taken by whoever is Chancellor after the next election. The tax increases and... 22nd April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What should we make of the conflicting rent data? A number of alternative sources of private sector rent data have recently emerged. However, their conflicting signals mean that the available picture of what is actually happening to rents remains... 21st April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Negative equity to affect at least 3 million households Last October we estimated that the current housing market correction would leave some 2.5 million households with at least some degree of negative equity. CML estimates, published yesterday, that... 17th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Affordability has improved, but the correction is far from over This morning’s Daily Telegraph reported that, according to Lombard Street Research, housing affordability is now better than its long-term average. That much is uncontroversial. However, we disagree... 14th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update No news on mortgage lending restrictions...yet. Today’s Turner Review confirmed that the FSA is actively considering imposing limits on mortgage loan to value or loan to income ratios. Whether or not that is in the economy’s long term interest... 18th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Northern Rock won’t transform the mortgage market overnight Although welcome, the resumption of lending by Northern Rock will not transform the mortgage market outlook overnight. However, it is also a sign that the Government is increasingly willing to... 23rd February 2009 · 1 min read
