UK Housing Market Update Fragile labour market is still a threat to the housing market A number of temporary factors such as the snow, the end of last year’s stamp duty holiday and now the election, have all been blamed for the drop in housing market activity in the early part of the... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Budget 2010 – Stamp duty measures ignore the real issues While there can be little doubt that they will be popular among aspiring first-time buyers, it is fairly clear that the Chancellor’s stamp duty measures do nothing to resolve the real problems facing... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Can ex-rental property rebalance the housing market? We believe that a large pool of rented property will be put up for sale this year. While that might initially result in higher sales, we doubt that the mortgage market will allow demand to keep pace... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How much has QE pushed up house prices? The main success of the Bank of England’s policy of quantitative easing (QE) has been the recent rise in asset prices. However, QE appears to have played only an indirect role in the housing market... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are structural supply shortages supporting house prices? We are not convinced that the recent recovery is evidence that long-term supply shortages are underpinning UK house prices. Admittedly, Sweden and Australia also suffer supply shortages and house... 8th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are cash buyers driving housing demand? Cash buyers have been a key support to housing demand over the past year. But they may have been a less important driver of the recovery in sales than is sometimes suggested. Moreover, if January’s... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will Lenders Trip Over the Mortgage Funding Gap? The fact that lenders face a prospective funding gap equivalent to a quarter of the outstanding stock of mortgage debt only strengthens our view that a second leg to the housing market correction lies... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update A last hurrah for mortgage interest rates? Even if official interest rates remain at 0.5% this year as we expect, with lender’s margins under pressure, competition for retail funds still strong and regulatory costs more likely to rise than... 10th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Affordability – why the different messages? According to the CML, aside from a brief period in 1996, mortgage affordability is the best on record. By contrast, our own measure of affordability is only in line with its long-run average and is no... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is property really such a great place to put your cash? Anecdotal evidence suggests that one of the key drivers of recent house price rises is increased demand from individuals seeking a better return than is available in the bank. Our calculations suggest... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the fall in Rightmove asking prices a sign of renewed weakness? November’s fall in asking prices may simply be a sign that the housing market has begun to wind down for Christmas. But it could also be a sign that the house price revival is about to run out of... 19th November 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage lending spreads – why are they so wide? Although market interest rates edged down in September, mortgage interest rates remained stable. As a result, mortgage lending spreads, already at unprecedented levels, widened further. We suspect... 30th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Australian experience does not alter the outlook for UK house prices In common with the UK, house prices in Australia have also staged a surprising recovery this year. Both markets suffer from structural housing supply shortages, so this could suggest that we are being... 20th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What would the end for self-certification mortgages mean? Yesterday’s Times reported that in next week’s Mortgage Review, the FSA will recommend the introduction of a rule which effectively spells the end of self-certification mortgages. If it is implemented... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Does the rise in consumer confidence explain the rise in house prices? Last year, consumer confidence and house price growth fell broadly in tandem, with both reaching record lows as the economic downturn took hold. More recently, they have both been rising. However, the... 25th September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will mortgage arrears jump higher as discounted tracker rates expire? Over the next six months, many of the borrowers who have benefitted most from the fall in interest rates will see their mortgage payments increase. At the margins, this is likely to boost mortgage... 11th September 2009 · 1 min read
