UK Housing Market Update Will valuations be restored by a period of stable house prices? If the recent pattern of flat house prices and modest income growth were to continue, it would take over a decade for the house-price-to-earnings (HPE) ratio to return to its long-run average. However... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What is holding back mortgage approvals? While restricted credit availability is clearly an important factor, until the pressure on consumer incomes eases and confidence improves, regardless of what happens to credit availability, there is... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the latest rise in net migration another positive for rents? If sustained, the latest rise in net migration should add to the upward pressures on rents over the next few years. But if the increase continues to owe as much to fewer British citizens leaving the... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Have food and energy price rises offset the benefit of rate cuts? The low level of forced selling over the past few years, which has been a key support for average house prices, owes much to the low level of mortgage interest rates. But given the squeeze on real... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are mortgage approvals still a good lead indicator for house prices? The fact that the relationship between house prices and mortgage approvals has loosened over recent years does not mean that it has lost all its value. But in the absence of fresh, sharp falls in... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are cash buyers a sign of the underlying health of the housing market? Cash buyers continue to be a key support to housing market activity levels. But we remain sceptical that this demonstrates that a lack of mortgage lending, rather than stretched valuations and... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Have borrowers benefited from lower advertised mortgage rates? According to the Bank of England, advertised tracker and two-year fixed mortgage interest rates hit an all-time low in May. Yet the growing gap between advertised rates and the average rates being... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is London still a seller's market? The strength of demand from overseas buyers is often presented as a reason why London is, and is likely to remain, a seller’s market. But the RICS survey suggests that their influence may be waning... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What does the outlook for housebuilding imply for land values? Housebuilding activity bounced back strongly in the first quarter, albeit from an extremely low base. However, we doubt that the recovery can maintain this momentum. Indeed, on balance, we believe... 20th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update House price-to-rents ratio - why the different messages? We have been asked why the house price-to-rents ratio compiled using a National Accounts measure of rents indicates that housing is close to fair value, while the Retail Prices Index measure suggests... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What does the ratio of house prices to equities tell us? We often encounter the argument that low interest rates have made valuation metrics such as the house price-to-earnings ratio less useful as a guide to the sustainability or otherwise of prevailing... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will high inflation prevent nominal house price falls? The required correction in real house prices will not be delivered via above-target inflation. With earnings growth failing to keep pace with inflation, in order to close the gap between house prices... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Budget 2011 - No short-term fixes for property Given the degree of overvaluation in the residential market and the fragile economic backdrop, we are not convinced of the merits, or the likely success, of the Budget’s attempt to stimulate first... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How significant are the latest house price expectations data? The latest house price expectations surveys remain negative, but are not signalling an adjustment on anything like the scale seen in 2008-09. Nevertheless, their record in anticipating house price... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is now the time to fix? Assessed over a two year period, Bank Rate would have to rise to at least 2.75% to make it pay to fix at current mortgage interest rates. However, market expectations are for Bank Rate to rise to 2.25... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What do house-builders' results tell us about the housing outlook? Recent encouraging results from two of the major house-builders are unlikely to signal that the housing market has turned a corner, not least because they are backward-looking. And we can find little... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
