UK Housing Market Update Will the North/South split in house prices increase? Our current forecasts envisage that the relatively tight market conditions in the South will result in the North/South house price gap widening by around 5% to 6% this year. But if we are right in... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How significant are the latest mortgage rate rises? The increases in mortgage interest rates highlighted by the press this week are fairly small, are coming off a very low base and will affect a limited number of borrowers. But they should not be... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Could increased Chinese demand boost London house prices? Recent growth in the number of Chinese buyers in the London residential market has raised hopes (or fears) that as and when the renminbi becomes fully convertible the floodgates could open. However... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How big is the problem of latent mortgage distress? Data released last week confirmed the downward trend in mortgage arrears and possessions. The popular perception is that both have benefitted from low interest rates and the relatively benign labour... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How will housing transactions fare in 2012? At first glance, the resilience of buyer enquiries in the closing stages of 2011 is encouraging news for the housing market. Yet we are inclined to place more weight on reports that mortgage demand... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What are empty homes really telling us about the housing market? There has been a marked reduction in the number of empty homes since the housing market crash first hit, driven by a decline in the number of long-term empties. To our minds, that suggests that the... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update First thoughts on the revised Mortgage Market Review The FSA’s proposals to put a revised affordability test at the centre of the mortgage underwriting process will not dampen materially further the flow of mortgage credit from today’s subdued levels... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are high rental yields supporting house prices? One explanation for why house prices have remained fairly well supported over the past year or two is that rental yields look attractive compared to the alternatives. Yet the track record of such... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Who will protect borrowers against lower house prices? The proposal to protect lenders against the risk of fresh falls in house prices should help to boost the supply of low-deposit mortgages next year. But it is far from clear that the overall supply of... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How significant are City jobs for London's housing market? Popular perception dictates that City jobs are a crucial driver of London’s housing market. Yet there have been at least two previous occasions when significant City redundancies did not trigger house... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Can high income multiples prevent a further adjustment in house prices? By allowing buyers to bridge the substantial gap between house prices and earnings, the recovery in average income multiples on mortgage lending towards their pre-recession highs has almost certainly... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why do policymakers keep returning to long-term fixed rate mortgages? Successive policymakers, of whom the Housing Minister is the latest, have called for greater use of long-term fixed rate mortgages in the UK. The argument goes that long-term fixed rate mortgages... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is London’s outperformance built on flimsy foundations? London has been reliant on a handful of the most expensive boroughs to deliver positive house price growth over the past year. To our minds, that leaves house prices in the capital looking susceptible... 29th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the house price correction about to pick up pace? Our forecasts already envisage that the pace of house price falls will increase next year. With most of the recent downgrade to our economic forecasts accounted for by the deteriorating prospects for... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How well founded is the rise in house prices in the South? Yesterday’s report by Rightmove illustrated the huge North/South divide in average asking prices. But the fact that this North/South split is notable by its absence from the transactions data suggests... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Euro crisis to tip the UK back into recession The euro-zone debt crisis is likely to have severe adverse effects on the UK economy at a time when domestic contractionary forces are building. We now expect UK GDP growth to slow from about 0.8%... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
