UK Housing Market Update Is property really such a great place to put your cash? Anecdotal evidence suggests that one of the key drivers of recent house price rises is increased demand from individuals seeking a better return than is available in the bank. Our calculations suggest... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the fall in Rightmove asking prices a sign of renewed weakness? November’s fall in asking prices may simply be a sign that the housing market has begun to wind down for Christmas. But it could also be a sign that the house price revival is about to run out of... 19th November 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage lending spreads – why are they so wide? Although market interest rates edged down in September, mortgage interest rates remained stable. As a result, mortgage lending spreads, already at unprecedented levels, widened further. We suspect... 30th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Australian experience does not alter the outlook for UK house prices In common with the UK, house prices in Australia have also staged a surprising recovery this year. Both markets suffer from structural housing supply shortages, so this could suggest that we are being... 20th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What would the end for self-certification mortgages mean? Yesterday’s Times reported that in next week’s Mortgage Review, the FSA will recommend the introduction of a rule which effectively spells the end of self-certification mortgages. If it is implemented... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Does the rise in consumer confidence explain the rise in house prices? Last year, consumer confidence and house price growth fell broadly in tandem, with both reaching record lows as the economic downturn took hold. More recently, they have both been rising. However, the... 25th September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will mortgage arrears jump higher as discounted tracker rates expire? Over the next six months, many of the borrowers who have benefitted most from the fall in interest rates will see their mortgage payments increase. At the margins, this is likely to boost mortgage... 11th September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Auction data point to renewed house price weakness ahead The price of property sold at auction suggests that, having risen slightly in recent months, the market clearing price for residential property has fallen back again. This may be a warning sign that... 26th August 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is London’s housing market leading the country into recovery? Headline regional figures show that London house prices are rising again. However, contrary to popular perception, the available data suggest that this latest upturn is far from universal. Indeed... 20th August 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the mortgage market freeing up? On the face of it, the rise in mortgage approvals since the turn of the year together with the latest Bank of England credit conditions survey suggests that the mortgage credit freeze is beginning to... 5th August 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are parents keeping the housing market going? The CML recently reported that, in the past two years, the percentage of first-time buyers being helped by their parents to gather a deposit has doubled. At first sight, this may suggest that parents... 22nd July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update House price to earnings – what is behind the alternative measures? We have been asked by several clients about the difference between our measure of the house price to earnings ratio and that reported by the Halifax. The Halifax measure suggests that house prices... 8th July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Credit Conditions survey and PMI data don’t alter weak property outlook Today’s Credit Conditions survey from the Bank of England showed that the supply of mortgage finance appears to be slowly improving, but does not change our view that further price falls are very... 2nd July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Lowering mortgage deposit requirements will not be enough Given the focus of much analysis of the housing market, a casual observer could be forgiven for thinking that the withdrawal of high loan to value mortgage products was the root cause of the slump in... 29th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Bank of England Financial Stability Report, June 2009 Property markets were not a key feature of the Bank of England’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR). However, the focus of the report, on tighter regulation in future, adds to the case for... 26th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Residential property derivatives – should we listen? The recent improvement in economic sentiment has been reflected in a shift in residential property derivative pricing. However, while we agree that house price declines in 2009 and 2010 will be... 17th June 2009 · 1 min read