UK Housing Market Update What does the moderation in London house price inflation mean? Last night’s Evening Standard headline, “House prices fall in London”, may have stretched the truth. Yet it does appear as though the pace of house price growth in London is at least beginning to slow... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What’s behind the drop in housing starts? It is easy to turn the Greek fiscal crisis into a scapegoat for any piece of bad news. But it does seem plausible that, by triggering a rise in mortgage interest rates and tighter credit conditions... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What impact have rising mortgage interest rates had? Despite making the headlines in recent months, the impact of rising mortgage interest rates on affordability has so far been relatively modest. But with the economy back in recession and renewed fears... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is new-build housing demand a sign of improving buyer sentiment? Demand in the new build sector has recently been stronger than for the market as a whole. This could be the first sign that buyer sentiment is improving. But it seems more likely that the data simply... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Renewed recession underscores likelihood of housing downturn Every recession in the UK of the past half century has been accompanied by real house price falls. But unlike many episodes in the past, with inflation low by historical standards, there is a good... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Transactions to suffer as vendors dig in their heels On balance, April’s rise in asking prices does not appear to be good news for the housing market. For a start, to our minds it further reduces the chances that activity will recover any time soon. It... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update 2012 Budget - Stamp Duty takes centre stage again The new higher rate of stamp duty for £2m-plus properties, as well as a clampdown on avoidance schemes, is likely to dampen activity at the top end of the London housing market. But we doubt that the... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will the North/South split in house prices increase? Our current forecasts envisage that the relatively tight market conditions in the South will result in the North/South house price gap widening by around 5% to 6% this year. But if we are right in... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How significant are the latest mortgage rate rises? The increases in mortgage interest rates highlighted by the press this week are fairly small, are coming off a very low base and will affect a limited number of borrowers. But they should not be... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Could increased Chinese demand boost London house prices? Recent growth in the number of Chinese buyers in the London residential market has raised hopes (or fears) that as and when the renminbi becomes fully convertible the floodgates could open. However... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How big is the problem of latent mortgage distress? Data released last week confirmed the downward trend in mortgage arrears and possessions. The popular perception is that both have benefitted from low interest rates and the relatively benign labour... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How will housing transactions fare in 2012? At first glance, the resilience of buyer enquiries in the closing stages of 2011 is encouraging news for the housing market. Yet we are inclined to place more weight on reports that mortgage demand... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What are empty homes really telling us about the housing market? There has been a marked reduction in the number of empty homes since the housing market crash first hit, driven by a decline in the number of long-term empties. To our minds, that suggests that the... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update First thoughts on the revised Mortgage Market Review The FSA’s proposals to put a revised affordability test at the centre of the mortgage underwriting process will not dampen materially further the flow of mortgage credit from today’s subdued levels... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are high rental yields supporting house prices? One explanation for why house prices have remained fairly well supported over the past year or two is that rental yields look attractive compared to the alternatives. Yet the track record of such... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Who will protect borrowers against lower house prices? The proposal to protect lenders against the risk of fresh falls in house prices should help to boost the supply of low-deposit mortgages next year. But it is far from clear that the overall supply of... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read