UK Housing Market Update Property debt still a significant risk to UK financial system The Financial Stability Report (FSR) is not designed to lay out the Bank of England’s expectations for the financial system, economy or property markets. But there was enough in today’s report to... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Budget squeeze on household finances to weigh on house prices Fears that a rise in capital gains tax would rapidly destabilise the fragile house price recovery appear to have been overdone. But the scale of the fiscal squeeze announced by the Chancellor today... 22nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are expectations consistent with a turning point for house prices? Surveys of house price expectations, although weakening, are yet to signal the renewed falls that we are forecasting for the second half of this year. However, their record in anticipating price... 16th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update A shift is underway Today brought fresh evidence that not only does the past year’s house price bounce appear to have run its course but it now seems to be moving into reverse. Of course, all that could yet change. But... 11th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update The recovery in house-building will be slow Despite a 73% rise in private housing starts over the past year, the bigger picture is that housebuilding activity in England remains extremely subdued and that is unlikely to change rapidly. Indeed... 20th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is London’s housing market at a turning point? It is too soon to be sure whether the recent softness in some London housing market indicators are simply noise in an otherwise healthy trend or whether they are a sign that a turning point is at hand... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Residential and commercial property prospects diverge At a simple level, our view that last year’s house price recovery will be reversed, while gains in commercial property capital values will be sustained seems at odds with the strong historical... 23rd April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Fragile labour market is still a threat to the housing market A number of temporary factors such as the snow, the end of last year’s stamp duty holiday and now the election, have all been blamed for the drop in housing market activity in the early part of the... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Budget 2010 – Stamp duty measures ignore the real issues While there can be little doubt that they will be popular among aspiring first-time buyers, it is fairly clear that the Chancellor’s stamp duty measures do nothing to resolve the real problems facing... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Can ex-rental property rebalance the housing market? We believe that a large pool of rented property will be put up for sale this year. While that might initially result in higher sales, we doubt that the mortgage market will allow demand to keep pace... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How much has QE pushed up house prices? The main success of the Bank of England’s policy of quantitative easing (QE) has been the recent rise in asset prices. However, QE appears to have played only an indirect role in the housing market... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are structural supply shortages supporting house prices? We are not convinced that the recent recovery is evidence that long-term supply shortages are underpinning UK house prices. Admittedly, Sweden and Australia also suffer supply shortages and house... 8th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are cash buyers driving housing demand? Cash buyers have been a key support to housing demand over the past year. But they may have been a less important driver of the recovery in sales than is sometimes suggested. Moreover, if January’s... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will Lenders Trip Over the Mortgage Funding Gap? The fact that lenders face a prospective funding gap equivalent to a quarter of the outstanding stock of mortgage debt only strengthens our view that a second leg to the housing market correction lies... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update A last hurrah for mortgage interest rates? Even if official interest rates remain at 0.5% this year as we expect, with lender’s margins under pressure, competition for retail funds still strong and regulatory costs more likely to rise than... 10th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Affordability – why the different messages? According to the CML, aside from a brief period in 1996, mortgage affordability is the best on record. By contrast, our own measure of affordability is only in line with its long-run average and is no... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read