UK Housing Market Update House price-to-rents ratio - why the different messages? We have been asked why the house price-to-rents ratio compiled using a National Accounts measure of rents indicates that housing is close to fair value, while the Retail Prices Index measure suggests... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What does the ratio of house prices to equities tell us? We often encounter the argument that low interest rates have made valuation metrics such as the house price-to-earnings ratio less useful as a guide to the sustainability or otherwise of prevailing... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will high inflation prevent nominal house price falls? The required correction in real house prices will not be delivered via above-target inflation. With earnings growth failing to keep pace with inflation, in order to close the gap between house prices... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Budget 2011 - No short-term fixes for property Given the degree of overvaluation in the residential market and the fragile economic backdrop, we are not convinced of the merits, or the likely success, of the Budget’s attempt to stimulate first... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How significant are the latest house price expectations data? The latest house price expectations surveys remain negative, but are not signalling an adjustment on anything like the scale seen in 2008-09. Nevertheless, their record in anticipating house price... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is now the time to fix? Assessed over a two year period, Bank Rate would have to rise to at least 2.75% to make it pay to fix at current mortgage interest rates. However, market expectations are for Bank Rate to rise to 2.25... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What do house-builders' results tell us about the housing outlook? Recent encouraging results from two of the major house-builders are unlikely to signal that the housing market has turned a corner, not least because they are backward-looking. And we can find little... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update With activity so low, why aren't prices falling more quickly? The low level of forced selling is almost certainly the main reason why house prices are currently falling more slowly that the ultra-low levels of housing market activity would suggest. However, we... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is mortgage affordability close to an all-time high? We do not agree with research published recently in the Daily Telegraph suggesting that mortgage affordability is at near-record levels. By looking at interest payments only, the Lombard Street... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What effect would a rise in Bank Rate have on mortgage interest rates? In principle, lenders appear to have scope to absorb any rise in Bank Rate within their already high margins. Yet lenders are now raising the cost of some mortgages in response to higher swap rates... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Funding problems to keep lid on bank lending The Chancellor is upping the pressure on banks to lend more. But with banks’ funding problems really coming home to roost this year, he might soon feel like he is banging his head against a brick wall... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is replacing stamp duty with an annual tax on property a good idea? Theoretically at least, the OECD’s recent proposal to replace stamp duty with an annual tax on property could improve labour market mobility and discourage excessive consumption of housing. But... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Struggling tenants will limit growth in average rents If our unemployment forecasts are correct, the rise in the number of tenants who are struggling to meet their rents may be the start of a growing trend. At the very least these figures support our... 12th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is now a good time to buy residential property as an inflation hedge? Growing fears about the inflation outlook do not improve the case for buying residential property at the present time. Given how high real house prices currently are, we think that it would be unwise... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Should the shift towards repayment mortgages be welcomed? The increased share of first-time buyers on repayment mortgages should be welcomed. The high level of interest-only lending during the boom years contributed to the unsustainable gap that opened up... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How concerned should we be about the latest drop in house-building? The fall in dwelling starts in Q3 may well be a sign that the recovery in house-building has run out of steam. If so, it raises questions about the durability of the wider economic recovery and, on... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
