UK Housing Market Update How will home-owners respond to renewed signs of house price falls? As signs that the past year’s house price gains are going into reverse become more widespread, the number of active sellers in the housing market is likely to decline. But a fall in house price... 19th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are asking prices a reliable lead indicator? Yesterday’s fall in asking prices reported by Rightmove was noticeably stronger than the traditional dip normally observed in August. Admittedly, despite their timely nature the data’s track record as... 17th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Does renewed house-building explain the rise in construction output? The construction industry contributed 0.4 percentage points to the 1.1%q/q growth in GDP in the second quarter of 2010. What’s more, house-building appears to have contributed strongly to the growth... 30th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will loosening market conditions lead to house price falls? On one measure at least, the amount of unsold stock on surveyors’ books is consistent with falling house prices. With sellers now seemingly outnumbering buyers, we expect that looser market conditions... 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are the OBR’s house price forecasts too optimistic? The Office for Budget Responsibility’s house price forecasts seem to imply a structural shift in the sustainable house price to earnings ratio and a return to peak of the market mortgage servicing... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Property debt still a significant risk to UK financial system The Financial Stability Report (FSR) is not designed to lay out the Bank of England’s expectations for the financial system, economy or property markets. But there was enough in today’s report to... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Budget squeeze on household finances to weigh on house prices Fears that a rise in capital gains tax would rapidly destabilise the fragile house price recovery appear to have been overdone. But the scale of the fiscal squeeze announced by the Chancellor today... 22nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are expectations consistent with a turning point for house prices? Surveys of house price expectations, although weakening, are yet to signal the renewed falls that we are forecasting for the second half of this year. However, their record in anticipating price... 16th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update A shift is underway Today brought fresh evidence that not only does the past year’s house price bounce appear to have run its course but it now seems to be moving into reverse. Of course, all that could yet change. But... 11th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update The recovery in house-building will be slow Despite a 73% rise in private housing starts over the past year, the bigger picture is that housebuilding activity in England remains extremely subdued and that is unlikely to change rapidly. Indeed... 20th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is London’s housing market at a turning point? It is too soon to be sure whether the recent softness in some London housing market indicators are simply noise in an otherwise healthy trend or whether they are a sign that a turning point is at hand... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Residential and commercial property prospects diverge At a simple level, our view that last year’s house price recovery will be reversed, while gains in commercial property capital values will be sustained seems at odds with the strong historical... 23rd April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Fragile labour market is still a threat to the housing market A number of temporary factors such as the snow, the end of last year’s stamp duty holiday and now the election, have all been blamed for the drop in housing market activity in the early part of the... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Budget 2010 – Stamp duty measures ignore the real issues While there can be little doubt that they will be popular among aspiring first-time buyers, it is fairly clear that the Chancellor’s stamp duty measures do nothing to resolve the real problems facing... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Can ex-rental property rebalance the housing market? We believe that a large pool of rented property will be put up for sale this year. While that might initially result in higher sales, we doubt that the mortgage market will allow demand to keep pace... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How much has QE pushed up house prices? The main success of the Bank of England’s policy of quantitative easing (QE) has been the recent rise in asset prices. However, QE appears to have played only an indirect role in the housing market... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
