UK Economic Outlook Recovery in sight, but more pain to come first Rising real pay should kick-start a slow recovery in consumer spending next year. But first further falls in spending could lie ahead. 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the external sector rescue the recovery? There are a number of reasons to remain optimistic about the outlook for the UK’s external sector. Admittedly, these are likely to be outweighed in the near-term by the knock on effects of the euro... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Squeeze on real pay to ease this year The squeeze on real pay is finally easing. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to prevent a further drop in real consumer spending this year. However, it should lay the foundation for a recovery to start... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The year of the double-dip There are a number of reasons to remain optimistic about the outlook for the UK’s external sector. Admittedly, these are likely to be outweighed in the near-term by the knock on effects of the euro... 23rd December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Heading back into recession With the painful squeeze on real incomes set to continue, consumer spending will fall significantly further. We continue to expect real spending to contract by a further 2% or so by the end of 2012... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook How big is the euro threat? The deepening crisis in the euro-zone is likely to have major adverse effects on the UK. We now expect the economy to stagnate in 2012, with a high chance of a technical recession. But a rapid... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Squeeze on real pay to worsen With the economic recovery still struggling to regain momentum, we have recently lowered our forecasts for consumer spending and GDP growth this year. We now expect a 1.5% drop in real spending. We... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Growing apart or coming together? - The regional outlook for the economy The common perception is that the fiscal squeeze will prompt the traditional North-South divide to widen. However, we think it is more likely that the different regions of the UK will see a more... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Spending to fall both this year and next We continue to expect falling real incomes to prompt consumer spending to drop this year. In fact, with inflation possibly heading to 5% and pay growth showing few signs of following, we recently... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Feeling the pinch Households are already suffering the biggest squeeze on their incomes in decades. But the worst may be yet to come. 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook A toxic mix for incomes Falling disposable incomes will soon bring the consumer recovery to an end. We still expect spending to start falling again in real terms. 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook A bumpy road to recovery We doubt that the economic recovery is on the secure footing required for it to maintain its recent pace. We expect GDP growth of just 1.5% in both 2011 and 2012. But at least the UK has turned a... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Consumer spending heading for a double dip (Q4 2010) We continue to think that the biggest fiscal squeeze in decades will bring the consumer recovery to a sharp halt. 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook How will companies weather the fiscal storm? (Q4 10) Companies may weather the coming fiscal storm rather better than households and the public sector. But they certainly won’t survive entirely unscathed. 11th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Can the UK survive the squeeze? (Q3 2010) The fiscal contraction is now well and truly underway. However, we doubt that the conditions are in place for the economy to take such a sharp squeeze in its stride. 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
