UK Economic Outlook Recovery remains just out of reach The squeeze on real pay is ending but the prospect of an actual recovery now looks a bit further off. We still expect the consumer spending recovery to be very muted. 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Government spending cuts - myth or reality? In our latest UK Quarterly Review, we look at the heated issue of the Government’s spending cuts. Are they responsible for killing off the economic recovery as some have claimed? Or are they the “bare... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Real pay finally to start rising Real pay is finally about to start rising again. But the need for households to repair their balance sheets will keep the recovery in consumer spending modest. 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery in sight, but more pain to come first Rising real pay should kick-start a slow recovery in consumer spending next year. But first further falls in spending could lie ahead. 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the external sector rescue the recovery? There are a number of reasons to remain optimistic about the outlook for the UK’s external sector. Admittedly, these are likely to be outweighed in the near-term by the knock on effects of the euro... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Squeeze on real pay to ease this year The squeeze on real pay is finally easing. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to prevent a further drop in real consumer spending this year. However, it should lay the foundation for a recovery to start... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The year of the double-dip There are a number of reasons to remain optimistic about the outlook for the UK’s external sector. Admittedly, these are likely to be outweighed in the near-term by the knock on effects of the euro... 23rd December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Heading back into recession With the painful squeeze on real incomes set to continue, consumer spending will fall significantly further. We continue to expect real spending to contract by a further 2% or so by the end of 2012... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook How big is the euro threat? The deepening crisis in the euro-zone is likely to have major adverse effects on the UK. We now expect the economy to stagnate in 2012, with a high chance of a technical recession. But a rapid... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Squeeze on real pay to worsen With the economic recovery still struggling to regain momentum, we have recently lowered our forecasts for consumer spending and GDP growth this year. We now expect a 1.5% drop in real spending. We... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Growing apart or coming together? - The regional outlook for the economy The common perception is that the fiscal squeeze will prompt the traditional North-South divide to widen. However, we think it is more likely that the different regions of the UK will see a more... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Spending to fall both this year and next We continue to expect falling real incomes to prompt consumer spending to drop this year. In fact, with inflation possibly heading to 5% and pay growth showing few signs of following, we recently... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Feeling the pinch Households are already suffering the biggest squeeze on their incomes in decades. But the worst may be yet to come. 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook A toxic mix for incomes Falling disposable incomes will soon bring the consumer recovery to an end. We still expect spending to start falling again in real terms. 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook A bumpy road to recovery We doubt that the economic recovery is on the secure footing required for it to maintain its recent pace. We expect GDP growth of just 1.5% in both 2011 and 2012. But at least the UK has turned a... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
