UK Economic Outlook Policy response should cushion the hit from leave vote The UK’s vote to leave the European Union has plunged the country into a period of almost unprecedented uncertainty. But we remain a bit less pessimistic than some others over the economic impact. So... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Consumers to weather Brexit uncertainty well Consumers face a tougher year than last, with Brexit uncertainty mounting, austerity increasing and inflation rising. Nonetheless, strong levels of confidence and a resilient labour market should... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery to weather referendum uncertainty well Although the EU referendum is less than three months away, its impact on the economy has so far been relatively modest. And if the UK votes to stay, activity could subsequently rebound. Admittedly... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Spending to slow this year, but prospects further ahead remain bright The boost to consumers’ spending power from low energy prices is set to fade this year. What’s more, households face a big fiscal squeeze. And with unemployment nearing its natural rate, there is less... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook A challenging year ahead 2016 won’t be an easy year for the UK economy, given the renewed fiscal squeeze and probable EU referendum in particular. Nonetheless, we expect it to weather these clouds relatively well and... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Boosts to spending to fade next year The recent return to deflation is boosting consumers’ spending power. Real household spending still looks set to grow by about 3% this year, the strongest rate for a decade. 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The changing shape of the UK economy - The winners and the losers Beneath the surface, it is clear that the economic recovery has not been firing on all cylinders recently. And the recovery faces a number of headwinds over the next year or so – in particular the re... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery unlikely to slow sharply next year Strong growth in household spending this year will give way to a weaker performance in 2016. But this slowdown will not be severe and the medium-term outlook is bright. 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the rest of the world hold the UK back? Although external threats to the UK economy have multiplied this year, we do not think that they are likely to derail the recovery. Indeed, the resilience of the UK’s economic recovery has shocked... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Households well-placed to endure renewed fiscal squeeze Households have rarely had it so good – no inflation, strong jobs growth, reviving earnings, a breather from austerity and falling borrowing costs. As a result, we think that real household spending... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Don’t underestimate the economy’s hidden slack Economists and policymakers are significantly overestimating the permanent damage inflicted to the economy from the financial crisis and recession. We still think that the economy has the potential to... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Fall in energy prices to keep consumer recovery going The marked fall in energy prices over the past six months or so has provided households with a timely boost to their discretionary spending power and so provides another reason to think that the... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the recovery fizzle out in 2015? While the UK’s economic recovery has shown some signs of flagging recently, we think its best days may still lie ahead. Admittedly, it has depended on some unsustainable sources and the general... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Real income revival to spur recovery A combination of very low inflation, reviving growth in earnings and further robust jobs growth should ensure that households’ real disposable incomes grow in 2015 at their fastest annual rate since... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Working nine to nine? Rapid growth in the UK’s workforce in spite of both demographic and international trends has been crucial to sustaining the economic recovery and preventing it from stoking inflation. Looking ahead... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery to maintain pace despite headwinds While the recovery in consumer spending is no longer gaining pace, we expect it to remain brisk over the next couple of years. Real earnings should pick up as inflation eases and further falls in... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
