UK Economic Outlook Can the economy withstand higher interest rates? The recovery should maintain its strong paceeven though interest rates look set to risefrom the record low level soon. The MonetaryPolicy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to beunder pressure from inflation... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery built on solid foundations Although the revival in housing market activity may lose some pace as a result of new regulations and rising mortgage rates, we doubt that this will derail the recovery in consumer spending. 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Is the pay squeeze finally over? In this edition of our UK Quarterly Review, we take a close look at the outlook for earnings. After enduring the biggest decline in real wages since the 1920s, are workers finally set to see the... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Spending recovery looks sustainable After falling for six years in a row, real pay should finally rise this year, providing a more sustainable foundation for further robust growth in real consumer spending. Rising employment and a... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The leader of the pack? The UK economy has leapt towards the top of the international growth table and there are good reasons to think it can stay there. We now expect the economy to grow by 3% this year and next. 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Spending outlook brightens While real pay looks set to continue to fall until mid-2014, rising wealth, further modest gains in employment, income tax cuts and looser credit conditions should all help to sustain the recovery in... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery, but the right sort? The recent concerns about the type of economic recovery underway in the UK are overdone. While the recovery still faces some major challenges, we do not believe that an over-reliance on the housing... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Fragile recovery finally underway Signs of life in the housing market could aid the recovery in consumer spending. But continued falls in real pay are likely to keep any near-term consumer revival subdued. 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook After the stagnation In our latest UK Quarterly Review, we discuss reasons to be optimistic about the UK’s medium term outlook. Contrary to the popular belief that we are the eternal “Eeyores” of the economics world, we... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The squeeze continues The squeeze on consumers’ real pay will intensify even further over the next few months. Thereafter it should abate, although sub-par rates of spending growth are likely to continue for some time. 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The hare and the tortoise As the UK struggles to grow, she can only look on with envy at the budding recovery in the US. The UK will continue to lag behind for the foreseeable future. But further ahead, she should be able to... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Another tough year to get through Consumers will have to endure a further tough year. We no longer expect consumer spending to rise at all in real terms in 2013. But a recovery should start next year. 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Going nowhere Over the past five years, the economy has been through three Rs: recession, recovery and relapse. It is hoped that 2013 will see the start of a fourth R, revival. However, we think that the economy... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery remains just out of reach The squeeze on real pay is ending but the prospect of an actual recovery now looks a bit further off. We still expect the consumer spending recovery to be very muted. 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Government spending cuts - myth or reality? In our latest UK Quarterly Review, we look at the heated issue of the Government’s spending cuts. Are they responsible for killing off the economic recovery as some have claimed? Or are they the “bare... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Real pay finally to start rising Real pay is finally about to start rising again. But the need for households to repair their balance sheets will keep the recovery in consumer spending modest. 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
