UK Economic Outlook

How will companies weather the fiscal storm? (Q4 10)

Companies may weather the coming fiscal storm rather better than households and the public sector. But they certainly won’t survive entirely unscathed.

11th October 2010 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

Can the UK survive the squeeze? (Q3 2010)

The fiscal contraction is now well and truly underway. However, we doubt that the conditions are in place for the economy to take such a sharp squeeze in its stride.

3rd August 2010 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

Spending will struggle to grow during fiscal squeeze (Q3 2010)

The sheer scale of the fiscal squeeze means that consumer spending will struggle to rise in the next few years.

2nd August 2010 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

Sweet spot is disappearing (Q2 10)

With consumers so far fighting off any preelection nerves, the consumer recovery could gather further momentum in the next month or two. But the second half of the year should look rather different to...

26th April 2010 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

Will the sterling boost ever arrive? (Q2 2010)

Hopes for a strong recovery in the UK economy rest on a decent boost to the external sector from the drop in the pound. But it is looking less and less likely that the exporting sector will manage to...

7th April 2010 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

Near-term momentum to fade as the year progresses (Q1 10)

Consumer spending could continue to strengthen in the next few months. But this should be short-lived. We still anticipate several years of consumer weakness.

27th January 2010 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

Leader or laggard? (Q1 2010)

A mood of doom and gloom has descended regarding the UK economy. The fact that the UK has been much slower to exit recession than other economies has raised concerns that its previous economic success...

4th January 2010 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

Sluggish recovery ahead (Q4 09)

The recovery in consumer spending still looks likely to be sluggish. Even if banks loosen credit conditions further, households are likely to remain focused on paying off - rather than taking on -...

26th October 2009 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

The great squeeze (Q4 2009)

After a decade or more in which rapid increases in public spending have lent powerful support to the UK economy, the great squeeze is about to begin.

9th October 2009 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

Retail to suffer renewed period of weakness (Q3 09)

With the economy emerging tentatively from recession, the near-term outlook for consumer spending has improved since the previous Analyst. As a result, we have nudged up our forecasts for overall...

16th July 2009 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

U, V or W? (Q3 2009)

There is little doubt that the near-term outlook for the economy has improved. But there remains a huge amount of uncertainty about just what shape the recovery will take.

7th July 2009 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

Labour market to restrain recovery in real household income (Q2 09)

We continue to expect real consumer spending to fall by about 3.5% this year and still doubt that it will rise again until 2012 at the earliest.

27th April 2009 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

The next decade (Q2 2009)

A recovery could be months away or it could be years away. Sooner or later, though, recover the UK economy will. And when it does, the landscape will have changed beyond recognition.

1st April 2009 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

Passing on higher import costs may prove impossible (Q1 09)

The recession has gathered pace rapidly and we now expect consumer spending to drop by about 3.5% in real terms this year. Meanwhile, sterling’s sharp depreciation is an additional headache for...

4th February 2009 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

Living with deflation (Q1 2009)

Deflation is back! For the first time in very nearly half a century, the UK is likely to experience negative consumer price inflation in 2009.

24th December 2008 · 1 min read