UK Economic Outlook Renewed momentum gives MPC the green light With sustained rises in real wages now in prospect, real consumer spending growth should accelerate again. Of course, Brexit-related uncertainties and their economic effects could intensify over the... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Spending outlook brightens Abstracting from the effects of the snow in Q1, the big picture remains one of very feeble consumer spending. But things are starting to look up. CPI inflation now appears to be on a firm downward... 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Economy to withstand higher interest rates We maintain our relatively optimistic view about the prospects for UK economic growth over the next few years. In particular, a recovery in real earnings should help household spending growth to... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Easing in real pay squeeze to pave the way for pick-up in spending growth While household spending growth slowed markedly in 2017, the outlook for 2018 and beyond looks brighter. Indeed, the worst of the real pay squeeze appears to have passed. Following a peak of 3.1% in... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook MPC to respond to robust growth with more rate hikes Having barely slowed in 2017, contrary to predictions of a substantial negative impact from the Brexit vote, we think that the economy will defy renewed expectations of a slowdown this year. Amid... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The pay squeeze continues, but should abate next year The rise in inflation, primarily driven by sterling’s post-referendum slide, has taken its toll on consumer spending growth this year. However, we think that the worst of the real pay squeeze has... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Consumers surviving the squeeze Consumers appear to be riding out the real pay squeeze well, supporting our view that spending growth will remain subdued, rather than collapse. And it shouldn’t be too long before the inflationary... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The real pay squeeze continues While consumer spending growth has lost pace in the face of the ongoing real pay squeeze, talk of a collapse in spending is overdone. With inflation set to fall back next year as the impact of the... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Trade and investment to pick up the baton Consumer spending growth looks set to slow further this year as the real pay squeeze intensifies. But this should be offset by a stronger contribution from net trade and investment. There is a risk... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Consumer slowdown now underway Growth in consumer spending has begun to lose pace in response to the pick-up in inflation that is underway. This has been seen most acutely on the high street, with survey measures of spending on... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Into the unknown While there are huge uncertainties ahead, the UK economy has entered the formal countdown to Brexit with decent momentum. Against this background, we see no reason to alter our long-standing view that... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Coping with higher inflation Growth in household spending is likely to slow over the next few years as inflation rises and dampens growth in real incomes. But loose credit conditions and relatively upbeat sentiment by past... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Brexit resilience to continue While there are still considerable uncertainties over the economic outlook, we maintain our view that the damage from the UK’s vote to leave the EU will be smaller than most forecasters have... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Fourth quarter 2016 Consumer spending growth is unlikely to maintain its recent strength in the year ahead. But supportive credit conditions should prevent spending from slowing too sharply, with past monetary loosening... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Weathering the Brexit storm The evidence so far has supported our view that the immediate economic impact of the vote to leave the EU would not be as severe as most had expected. And although there are many challenges ahead –... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Shrugging off Brexit worries for now While early post-referendum indicators of consumer spending have been fairly upbeat, spending growth is still set to slow following the vote to leave the EU. Labour market conditions are likely to... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
