UK Economic Outlook More inflation, more interest rate hikes Although the hit to households’ real incomes from a bigger surge in CPI inflation than most expect (to a peak of almost 7% in April) explains why we think GDP growth will be slower this year than the... 17th January 2022 · 27 mins read
UK Economics A taste of stagflation The UK economy is experiencing a taste of stagflation. This won’t be anywhere near as severe or as persistent as in the 1970s. But for the next six months, the worsening product and labour shortages... 19th October 2021 · 27 mins read
UK Economics Surge in inflation won’t be sustained Our forecast that COVID-19 won’t significantly reduce potential supply means that the economy can run a bit hotter for longer without generating the persistent rise in inflation that would require... 20th July 2021 · 26 mins read
UK Economics Rapid recovery to limit scarring While we think the reopening of the economy and the vaccine rollout will allow GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level a bit earlier than most forecasters, the big difference between us and the... 15th April 2021 · 26 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A faster and fuller recovery within sight Our view that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic size in Q1 2022 and that it won’t be permanently smaller due to the pandemic is a more optimistic take than that of most forecasters. It... 19th January 2021 · 26 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery put on ice The new COVID-19 restrictions will put the economic recovery on ice for the next few months and will prevent the economy from climbing back to its pre-crisis level until the end of 2022. The... 13th October 2020 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery put on ice The new COVID-19 restrictions will put the economic recovery on ice for the next few months and will prevent the economy from climbing back to its pre-crisis level until the end of 2022. The... 13th October 2020 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Lagging behind in the recovery race The combination of a large share of the UK’s GDP being generated by the sectors that are hampered the most by social distancing and the drag from the uncertainty caused by Brexit means the UK economy... 20th July 2020 · 26 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Economy will struggle to get back to full health We think it will take the economy a few years to recover from an unprecedented hit to GDP of around 25% triggered by the lockdown implemented to contain the coronavirus. That’s because despite the... 16th April 2020 · 22 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Turning the corner We think the economy has turned a corner and that GDP growth will beat the consensus forecast by accelerating from 1.0% this year to 1.8% next year. Of course, the lingering uncertainty over the UK’s... 28th January 2020 · 25 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Outlook softer whatever happens with Brexit Regardless of what happens with Brexit between now and 31st October, the recent weakening in both the global and domestic data has led us to revise down our GDP growth forecasts in all three of our... 14th October 2019 · 26 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Outlook softer whatever happens with Brexit Regardless of what happens with Brexit between now and 31st October, the recent weakening in both the global and domestic data has led us to revise down our GDP growth forecasts in all three of our... 14th October 2019 · 26 mins read
UK Economic Outlook An economic multiverse As Brexit could dramatically alter the near-term outlook for the economy, we are continuing to publish three sets of forecasts based on different Brexit outcomes (deal, no deal and more delays). But... 16th July 2019 · 26 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Stuck in the middle lane The six-month delay to Brexit until 31st October 2019 has put the brakes on interest rate hikes and left the economy travelling in the middle lane, with GDP likely to rise by 1.5% this year. But... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Households well placed to step up spending While the uncertainty caused by Brexit is hampering consumption, households’ finances are fundamentally sound. Indeed, with earnings growth at a decade-high in December and inflation below its 2%... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Waiting for the handbrake to be released Brexit is a political crisis, not an economic one. While the extra uncertainty caused by Brexit has clearly hampered investment and consumption, the economy is fundamentally sound. There are still... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
