UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) It is possible to put a lot of the fall in inflation in August down to clothing and computer game prices, which are volatile. But there’s no denying that overall inflation is strikingly weak given... 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) July’s figures showed that the labour market has remained remarkably resilient despite the underlying weakness of economic growth, but some small cracks are starting to appear. 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Jul.) While Parliament seems to be falling apart, the economy is holding up reasonably well. July’s surprisingly strong rise in GDP suggests that it has not fallen into a recession. 9th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services & All-Sector PMI (Aug.) The small drop back in the services PMI in August could indicate that the weakness in some parts of the economy is starting to feed through into the services sector. However, the services PMI is still... 4th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The fall in the manufacturing PMI in August to its lowest level since July 2012 suggests the industrial sector has continued to contract. But we doubt that manufacturing will pull the overall economy... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Business & Consumer Confidence (Aug.) August’s EC survey of UK business and consumer confidence raises concern that the consumer sector may soon succumb to the malaise that has taken hold in the manufacturing sector. But with real wage... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jul.) The small surplus in July’s public finances wasn’t enough to make up for the jump in borrowing since the start of the financial year and suggests that borrowing will overshoot the OBR’s forecast this... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The rise in retail sales in July was fairly encouraging and supports our view that the economy has picked up in Q3 after contracting by 0.2% q/q in Q2. 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) July’s inflation figures may dampen speculation that the Bank of England will follow in the Fed’s footsteps and cut interest rates. With stronger pay growth and the fall in the pound likely to ensure... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) The labour market has shrugged off the 0.2% q/q fall in GDP in Q2, providing support to our view that the economy will recover in Q3. Indeed, employment rose by 115,000 on the quarter (consensus +60... 13th August 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q2 First Estimate) The small contraction in GDP in Q2 throws up the spectre of a recession even before Brexit. However, almost all the weakness was because the original Brexit deadline meant that activity that would... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services & All-Sector PMI (Jul.) The low level of the PMI surveys, particularly for construction and manufacturing, is consistent with the economy struggling in the aftermath of the original Brexit date. But there was some... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The manufacturing PMI remained at 48.0 in July, which was slightly stronger than expected (consensus 47.7), but it still indicates that manufacturing output fell at the start of Q3. However, the... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Consumer confidence recovered a little in July, but rising concerns about a no deal Brexit could mean that sentiment soon returns to its recent lows. 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) June’s public finances figures continued the underlying deterioration in the fiscal position evident since the beginning of the financial year and provided a timely reminder that the next Prime... 19th July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The rebound in retail sales in June was a big relief as it shows that there is some life in household spending yet and suggests that the overall economy may have avoided a contraction in Q2. 18th July 2019 · 3 mins read
