UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) Whatever the Bank of England thinks about yesterday’s failed Brexit vote, it will surely be pretty content with the news this morning that inflation has fallen to within a whisker of its 2% target for... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP Monthly Estimate (Nov.) The easing in GDP growth in the three months to November leaves growth only a little below the rates seen before the temporary factors of the World Cup and the unusually hot weather boosted it in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Dec.) Despite the small rise in the headline index of the Markit/CIPS services survey in December, it is quite clear that economic growth slowed in Q4. But we think this survey is once again overstating the... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) Despite the headline manufacturing PMI hitting a six-month high in December, the sector probably stagnated at the end of 2018. There were some signs, though, that worries of an impending no deal... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP National Accounts (Q3) & Public Finances (Nov.) The economy isn’t as healthy as the unrevised 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in the third quarter suggests, but providing that a Brexit deal is reached, we think GDP growth will surprise on the upside next year... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Dec.) December’s further fall GfK/NOP consumer confidence adds to the evidence that Brexit uncertainty is weighing on consumers’ willingness to spend. However, given the strength of the labour market, and... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) A surge in sales of household goods due to Black Friday spending helped retail sales to rebound in November. But December might be a little weaker as consumers probably bought some Christmas presents... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) Thanks to the recent sharp drop in oil prices, the fall in inflation in November is likely to be the precursor to a larger fall in December. Inflation could even reach the 2% target, bringing some... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) The latest labour market figures suggest that a recovery in real pay growth is taking root. This supports our view that GDP growth will rebound next year if a “no deal” Brexit is avoided. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP monthly estimate (Oct.) The weaker GDP figures for October seem to be mainly a reflection of the unwinding of some temporary factors which had boosted growth in Q3, rather than a significant slowdown in underlying activity... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Nov.) It is not too surprising that we have now reached the point where the Brexit shenanigans are weighing more heavily on activity. But we suspect the Markit/CIPS survey is overstating the slowdown in... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The rise in the manufacturing PMI in November suggests that a substantial fall in manufacturing output in Q4 will be avoided. However, the big picture is that the sector is struggling. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The weak tone of GfK/NOP’s Consumer Confidence Survey in November suggests that Brexit uncertainty is starting to weigh more heavily on confidence, which sets the stage for slightly weaker consumer... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) Were the deterioration in the public finances in October to continue, the OBR would have to reverse some of the Budget upgrade to its forecast. Borrowing may well overshoot the OBR’s forecast this... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) October’s official retail sales figures were weaker than expected. But a continued acceleration in real earnings, if a Brexit deal is signed (which admittedly, is looking less likely by the minute)... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.) The consumer price figures support our view that inflation will probably be back at the 2% target next year. Nonetheless, this is predicated on a Brexit deal being struck. In the event of a “no deal”... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
