UK Data Response Consumer/Producer Prices & Public Finances (Apr.) CPI Inflation rose back above the Bank of England’s 2% target in April for the first time since December. And while we suspect that inflation is likely to remain above 2% for the rest of the year, as... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) Despite the unemployment rate edging down to a fresh 45-year low, March’s figures painted a picture of a softening labour market. That is in line with our forecast for employment growth to ease this... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: First Estimate (Q1 2019) The Q1 GDP figures presented a slightly stronger picture of the economy’s recent performance than we had expected. But with some activity likely to have been brought forward, we doubt Q2 will be as... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Apr.) With Brexit having been delayed until 31st October, the slightly more upbeat tone of April’s IHS Markit/CIPS services survey was not too surprising. However, the PMI remained at a low level and we... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The fall back in the manufacturing PMI in April was to be expected after activity was boosted by Brexit preparations ahead of the original Brexit date of 29th March, and suggests manufacturing output... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Given the current political impasse, it is reassuring that the GfK/NOP consumer confidence figure held steady again in April. And with the six-month delay to Brexit removing the chance of an imminent... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Mar.) Another fall in the budget deficit to just 1.2% of GDP in 2018/19 puts the public finances on a sustainable footing and gives the Chancellor room to provide a “deal dividend” if there is a Brexit deal... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Not only did retail sales post a bumper rise in March, but February’s figure was revised up too, adding to the evidence that despite the political chaos, the economy grew at a decent rate of 0.3% q/q... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) The surprising softness of CPI inflation in March (it stayed at 1.9%) suggests that weak demand on the high street as Brexit uncertainty reached its peak may have forced retailers to discount their... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Feb.) The labour market posted another decent month in February. However, we suspect that February could mark the peak for employment growth as the survey evidence turned down sharply in recent months. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Feb.) The initial estimate of GDP was once again stronger than the survey evidence had suggested, providing a reassuring sign that the economy has weathered the Brexit chaos and overseas slowdown well. But... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Mar.) With the UK entering the most intense phase of Brexit uncertainty (so far!), the gloomy tone of March’s Markit/CIPS services survey is perhaps not too surprising. While we suspect the survey is... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Stockbuilding ahead of Brexit undoubtedly flattered the manufacturing PMI in March. Nonetheless, the manufacturing sector should support GDP growth in Q1. And the increase in the employment and new... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP Quarterly National Accounts (Q4 2018) Despite the ongoing impasse in Westminster on Brexit, weak GDP growth of 0.2% q/q at the end of last year probably marks a trough. The robust monthly increase in GDP in January and indications that... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) With just two weeks to go until Brexit and uncertainty higher than ever, it is reassuring that the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence held steady in March and consumers’ view of both their... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Feb.) With just eight days to go until Brexit and MPs seemingly losing their heads, it is reassuring that in February households kept calm and carried on spending. The health of the public finances in... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
