UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) The larger-than-expected rise in employment in November suggests the labour market has turned a corner after the weakness in Q3. That could help to convince the Monetary Policy Committee to hold off... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s outright fall in retail sales, despite a boost from the lateness of Black Friday, does not bode well for GDP growth in December and could nudge the MPC yet closer still to cutting rates at... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) December’s consumer price figures showed that after a brief pause in November, inflation is back on a downward trend. This is likely to push the Monetary Policy Committee even closer towards a rate... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Nov.) The sharp decline in GDP in December is partly due to some activity being brought forward before the 31st October Brexit deadline. Nonetheless it leaves the economy on course to stagnate or contract... 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services & All-Sector PMI (Dec.) Clearly Q4 was very weak, but the decisive result of the General Election appears to have given the services PMI a bit of a boost. That jump in confidence may start to come through in other data in Q1... 6th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q3 Final Estimate) & Public Finances (Nov.) Christmas has come early with the ONS revising up GDP growth in Q3 from 0.3% to 0.4% in its annual data deluge before the festive break. But the festive cheer will probably be short-lived seeing as... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) At face value, November’s further drop in retail sales volumes is pretty concerning. But the picture is clouded by the late timing of Black Friday this year, which probably means November’s figures... 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) November’s inflation figures will probably mean that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be content to sit on its hands at its meeting tomorrow. But unless the tone of the economic news improves... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) The larger-than-expected rise in employment in October suggests the labour market has stabilised, so the Monetary Policy Committee will probably hold off cutting interest rates at Thursday’s meeting... 17th December 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec.) & OBR Fiscal Data The weak flash PMIs for the UK are another piece of evidence that suggests growth flat-lined in Q4. And if there isn’t a pick-up in the surveys in the next few months, then the MPC may respond by... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Oct.) The stagnation in GDP in October is unlikely to influence many people’s vote in Thursday’s election, but it could prompt some more MPC members to vote for lower interest rates in the coming months. 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services & All-Sector PMI (Nov.) The softening in the all-sector PMI in November suggests that GDP growth has slowed sharply in Q4 from Q3’s 0.3% q/q rise and has perhaps even turned negative. But we think that the PMIs are... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Business & Consumer Confidence (Nov.) In contrast to the flash PMI’s for November which pointed to GDP growth slowing further, the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indictor (ESI) points to a stabilisation. And a slight improvement... 28th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.) The first set of regular flash PMIs for the UK will only stoke fears that the economy is heading for a further slowdown at the end of the year. Indeed, even though we think that the PMIs are probably... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) The worst October for the public finances for five years won’t prevent whoever wins the election embarking on a fiscal splurge. Borrowing appears to have been higher than expected due to Brexit... 21st November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) October’s fall in retail sales volumes was especially concerning as stores refrained from raising prices at all. This heightens the risk that consumer spending growth could slow in Q4 from Q3’s 0.4% q... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
