UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) The drop in CPI inflation from 1.8% in January to 1.7% in February is a small sign of things to come – we expect the effects of the coronavirus crisis to drag inflation below 1.0% in the months ahead. 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar.) The first conventional data for March confirmed that the coronavirus was having a massive negative impact on activity even before the Government stepped up the severity of its measures to slow the... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Feb.) After coming in at about 2% of GDP in 2019/20, the budget deficit will soon explode to close to the size seen in the great financial crisis. The government’s measures to combat the economic fallout of... 20th March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) The strong rate of employment growth at the start of the year is a rare bit of good news for the economy at the minute. But this growth will give way to a plunge in employment in the coming months. 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Jan.) The stagnation in GDP in January shows that the economy was weak even before people started worrying about the coronavirus. And our more timely measures of activity, such as weekly cinema sales... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services & All-Sector PMI (Feb.) The small rise in the all-sector PMI in February suggests that Q1 was shaping up to be a good quarter for the economy. But we suspect the survey will take a turn for the worse in March as the economic... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Business & Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the UK concurs with the message from the flash PMIs last week that the UK’s economic recovery continued in February. But consumer... 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Flash PMIs (Feb.) & Public Finances (Jan.) The continued strength of the PMIs in February proves that the surge in January wasn’t a flash in the pan and gives us confidence in our view that economic growth will pick up in the first quarter. 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s retail sales figures showed that December’s election result gave consumers the confidence to reopen their wallets. The more recent flooding and effects of the coronavirus may hinder sales in... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) The rise in CPI inflation for the first time in six months in January was in line with the Bank of England’s expectations, so this is unlikely to move the dial on the outlook for interest rates. 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec.) The larger-than-expected rise in employment in December suggests that the labour market joined the rest of the economy in turning a corner at the end of last year. However, pay growth is softening... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q4, First Estimate) While the first estimate of Q4 GDP showed that the economy stagnated at the end of last year, this is old news and less important than the timelier data that suggests the economy has since turned a... 11th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services & All-Sector PMI (Jan.) January’s all-sector PMI provides the clearest sign yet that the economy has turned a corner and supports our view that the next move in interest rates may actually be up, albeit not until 2021. 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Business & Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) confirmed the message from the flash PMIs last week that sentiment in the services sector improved markedly after the election, but that... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) The large rebound in January’s flash activity PMIs will probably be enough to prevent the Monetary Policy Committee from cutting interest rates at next Thursday’s meeting. After all, it’s the surest... 24th January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends (Jan.) & Public Finances (Dec.) The rebound in the main balances of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey in January offers further evidence that sentiment has taken an upward turn after the general election. This should help to convince... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
