UK Data Response

Labour Market (Mar./Apr.)

The headline labour market figures have not yet caught up with the fall in employment of between 500,000 and 1 million revealed in the timelier data for April. Given the shut down of so many...

19th May 2020 · 2 mins read

UK Data Response

GDP (Mar. & Q1)

March’s GDP figures showed that the UK economy was in freefall as soon as the coronavirus lockdown began. And with all the restrictions in place until mid-May, and then only lifted very slightly...

13th May 2020 · 4 mins read

UK Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS All-Sector PMI (Apr.)

The collapse in the construction PMI in April confirms that no sector of the economy has been spared from the slump in activity.

6th May 2020 · 3 mins read

UK Data Response

Insolvencies (Q1)

The drop in both the number of corporate and individual insolvencies in Q1 is unlikely to be maintained over the next few months as the collapse in revenues and employment caused by the coronavirus...

30th April 2020 · 2 mins read

UK Data Response

Retail Sales (Mar.)

The 5.1% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in March was the largest on record and suggests that household consumption declined by at least 4% q/q in Q1. However, as the corona virus lockdown was only...

24th April 2020 · 2 mins read

UK Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr.)

The eye-watering declines in April’s flash PMIs confirm the coronavirus lockdown has pushed the economy into a recession of unprecedented speed and depth. Particularly worrying was the large drop in...

23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read

UK Data Response

Public Finances (Mar.) & DMO Gilt Issuance

Despite the slight deterioration in March, the budget deficit was still only £48.7bn (2.1% of GDP) in 2019/20, but it will soon surge next year. The government measures to combat the economic fallout...

23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read

UK Data Response

Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.)

In March CPI inflation took the first leg of what we suspect will be a sustained journey down to around 0.5% by the summer, easing from 1.7% in February to 1.5%.

22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read

UK Data Response

Labour Market (Feb./Mar.)

The small crack that appeared to be opening up in the labour market in March may soon turn into a chasm with the unemployment rate rising from 4% to almost 9%.

21st April 2020 · 2 mins read

UK Data Response

Monthly GDP & International Trade (Feb.)

The 0.1% m/m fall in GDP in February will be the last figure that looks anything like “normal” for a while as the coronavirus lockdown will mean that in March and April GDP will fall at a speed and...

9th April 2020 · 3 mins read

UK Data Response

All-Sector PMI & GfK Consumer Sentiment (Mar.)

The incoming data continue to confirm that the UK is destined for the sharpest fall in economic output for over a century in Q2. And the collapse in consumer confidence to its lowest since 2009...

6th April 2020 · 2 mins read

UK Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS Services & Composite PMI (Mar.)

The downward revisions to March’s PMIs confirm that the measures taken to slow the spread of the coronavirus have pushed the economy into a recession of unprecedented scale and depth.

3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read

UK Data Response

Quarterly National Accounts (Q4)

The confirmation that the economy stagnated in Q4 shows that it was very weak even before the spread of the coronavirus in the UK. We expect a 15% q/q fall in GDP in Q2 and things could easily be...

31st March 2020 · 3 mins read

UK Data Response

Business & Consumer Confidence (Mar.)

The relatively small fall in the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the UK is mainly because the survey was done prior to the UK going into a full lockdown. A much sharper...

30th March 2020 · 3 mins read

UK Data Response

Retail Sales (Feb.)

The 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in February (consensus +0.2%) suggests that even prior to the disruption from the coronavirus, consumers were already starting to rein in spending.

26th March 2020 · 2 mins read