UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.) With inflation on the up and signs of increasing inflationary pressures in the labour market, we doubt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will sit on its hands for long after tomorrow’s meeting. If... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) There was no sign in the labour market data of Brexit concerns at the start of the year as the data beat expectations in every regard. And solid wage growth and employment alongside weak productivity... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Jan.) The larger-than-expected monthly increase in GDP of 0.5% in January (consensus 0.2%) is a reassuring sign that, up until January at least, the UK economy was weathering the political crisis at home... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Feb.) The headline index of the Markit/CIPS services survey in February suggests that at least some of the concern about Brexit’s impact on the economy has been overdone. However, worries about future... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The manufacturing sector is starting to succumb to the one-two punch from Brexit and the global economic slowdown. The upshot is that there is little chance that the sector will immediately bounce... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The small rise GfK/NOP’s headline measure of consumer confidence in February leaves it only a touch above January’s five-year low, despite a healthy economic backdrop for consumers. As a result... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) The last set of public finances figures released before the Spring Statement put the government on track to undershoot the OBR’s borrowing forecast of £25.5bn in the 2018-19 financial year. That gives... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec.) While reassuring, the large rise in employment in Q4 probably marks a peak in employment growth given the deterioration in surveys of hiring in January. And pay growth plateaued. Nonetheless, we think... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) Despite growing concerns about Brexit, which seem to be weighing on other sectors of the economy, the rise in retail sales volumes in January implies that consumers are still willing to spend. Of... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) The fall in CPI inflation in January to below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time in two years provided a further boost to households’ real spending power, but we doubt inflation will... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP First Estimate (Q4 2018) If there’s a silver lining from the mounting signs that the uncertainty caused by Brexit is holding back GDP growth, it’s that the economy could enjoy a decent rebound if a Brexit deal is agreed. 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jan.) The headline index of the Markit/CIPS services survey in January suggests that the slowdown which began in Q4 worsened at the start of Q1. And worries about future demand now appear to be seeping into... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The developing global slowdown has caused the UK manufacturing sector to weaken despite evidence that activity is being supported by some stockbuilding ahead of Brexit. The upshot is that there is... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) While GfK/NOP consumer confidence held steady in January, it did so at a five-year low of -14, and the bigger picture is that consumers remain downbeat despite a fairly healthy economic backdrop. That... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) & Public Finances (Dec.) The labour market figures for November were reassuring as they showed no sign of any hit to firms’ hiring from Brexit. And with pay growth also strong, households remain well placed to increase... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s slump means that retail sales volumes fell in Q4 as a whole. Unless a Brexit deal is signed soon, there is unlikely to be much of a rebound in Q1 2019 either. That said, if a no deal Brexit... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
