UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s consumer price inflation figures will do nothing to affect the Bank’s view – expressed at its meeting earlier this month – that interest rates will most likely be raised eventually if there... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) After GDP growth disappointed expectations yesterday, the smaller than expected fall in employment in the three months to September was something of a relief. At the margin, the figures reduce the... 12th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q3, First Estimate) While the burst of growth means that the economy avoided a recession in Q3, it’s pretty clear that underlying growth is soft and that the risks to our Q4 GDP forecast of 0.2% q/q are to the downside... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services & All-Sector PMI (Oct.) The recovery in the services PMI in October will allay fears that the largest sector of the economy is slipping into recession. Nonetheless, the survey suggests that the risks to our forecast that GDP... 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) While the manufacturing PMI recovered in October from September’s extremely weak level, it is still consistent with a recession in the manufacturing sector. 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) September’s better-than-expected public finances figures do not change this year’s overarching themes of higher spending and borrowing. Nonetheless, there is a high chance that the Chancellor will... 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s retail sales figures were perhaps a bit of a relief given the intense Brexit uncertainty, but were hardly a picture of strength. However, if a Brexit deal is indeed agreed soon, household... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Unchanged CPI inflation of 1.7% in September was softer than either we or the consensus (1.8%) expected which might delay interest rate hikes following a Brexit deal and increase the chances of rate... 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) The drop in employment and tick down in wage growth in August is further evidence that deeper fissures are starting to appear in the labour market. However, the unemployment rate is still low and wage... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Aug.) GDP fell on the month in August, but thanks to solid increases in May, June and July any remaining concerns that the economy fell into recession in Q3 have been well and truly banished. 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services & All-Sector PMI (Sep.) The drop in the IHS/Markit services PMI to a six-month low of 49.5 in September means that all three sector PMIs are now below the 50-mark which theoretically separates expansion from contraction... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) Despite the rise in the manufacturing PMI in September, it remains at a low level and suggests the industrial sector contracted again in Q3. However, we still doubt that manufacturing will pull the... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q2 Final Estimate) The revised GDP figures suggest the response to Brexit uncertainty since the referendum has been larger than previously thought. While headline GDP growth was little changed in recent years, household... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Confidence (Sep.) September’s small rise in consumer confidence probably reflects the falling chances of a no deal Brexit rather than an improvement in the underlying economy. And it still leaves confidence at a pretty... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) High government spending in the early months of 2019/20 and the change to how student loans are counted in August’s public finances data, combined with the spending increases announced in the Spending... 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Following two consecutive monthly gains, a fall in sales in August was always likely. In the event, sales fell by 0.2% m/m (consensus 0.0%, Capital Economics -0.5%) which dragged annual sales growth... 19th September 2019 · 2 mins read
