UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) There is little pressure for the MPC to adjust interest rates in either direction with CPI inflation remaining at the Bank of England’s 2% target for a second consecutive month in June. The continued... 17th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (May) The further slowdown in employment growth in May looks set to continue over the rest of this year as firms take a breath after the hiring spree in the first quarter. However, the labour market should... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (May) Despite the rebound in monthly GDP in May, the economy may have contracted in Q2 as a whole. But it’s going to be close and we doubt we’re heading for a recession as GDP will probably rise in Q3... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jun.) Following the falls in the manufacturing and construction surveys, the smaller decline in the headline business activity balance of the services PMI, from 51.0 in May to 50.2 in June, was a bit of a... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The drop in the manufacturing PMI from 49.4 in May to 48.0 in June (consensus 49.2) takes it to its lowest level since February 2013 and indicates that the sector is still suffering from a Brexit... 1st July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP Quarterly National Accounts (Q1 2019) GDP growth was unrevised at 0.5% q/q in the first quarter of the year, but that probably marked a temporary high as activity was brought forward ahead of the original Brexit deadline. Consequently the... 28th June 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jun.) Given the mounting concerns over a no deal Brexit, it is perhaps unsurprising that the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence dropped back in June. But with real wage growth strong and inflation... 28th June 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) While borrowing was higher than expected in May, the underlying picture is healthier. That should give the next Prime Minister greater scope to borrow more to increase spending or cut taxes without... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (May) Having grown unusually quickly in Q1, helped on by good weather and perhaps some purchases being brought forward ahead of the original Brexit date, retail sales growth has returned to its usual pace... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May 2019) CPI inflation is likely to bob about the 2% mark for the next couple of months, but there are still reasons to think that it will drift up again towards the end of the year. 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Apr.) The labour market remained relatively robust in April, despite the drop in activity in the rest of the economy. While we do expect employment growth to slow over the rest of this year as the available... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Apr.) April’s GDP figures suggest that the Brexit hangover in Q2 has been heavier than we had expected. We had previously thought GDP would rise by 0.2% q/q in Q2 as a whole, but it’s now possible that GDP... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (May) May’s IHS Markit/CIPS report on services was thankfully not as bad as the manufacturing and construction surveys released earlier this week. Nonetheless, it seems clear that the economy has lost... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (May) The sharper-than-expected drop in the manufacturing PMI from 53.1 to 49.4 means that the index is now at its lowest level since directly after the referendum in July 2016, and suggests that the sector... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May) Consumers appeared unfazed by the political chaos, with the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence rising to a fresh eight-month high in May. But with the economic fundamentals of consumer spending... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Away from this morning’s political developments, April’s retail sales figures were better than most had feared. Nonetheless, the figures still suggest that GDP growth will be weaker in Q2 than in Q1. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
