UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS All-Sector PMI (Jun.) While the PMIs are tricky to interpret at the moment, the recovery in the all-sector PMI from a trough of 13.4 in April to just shy of 50 in June is another sign that there has been a strong initial... 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Quarterly National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) The 2.2% q/q drop in GDP in Q1 2020 was the joint largest fall since 1979 and sets the stage for an unprecedented 15-20% fall in Q2, despite evidence that the economy rebounded in May and June. 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (May) The Bounce Back Loan Scheme restored access to credit for small and medium-sized enterprises in May. That increases the chances of a swift recovery but will also raise the fiscal cost of the crisis... 29th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response EC Economic Sentiment (Jun.) The rise in the UK Economic Sentiment Indicator in June suggests that the economy is continuing to recover after its nadir in April. But firms and households are becoming more downbeat on the outlook... 29th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jun.) The nature of the PMIs makes them tricky to interpret at the moment, but the rise in the composite PMI from 30.0 in May to 47.6 in June (consensus 41.0) suggests that the additional easing in the... 23rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (May) The bigger-than-expected rebound in retail sales in May, was driven by another big step up in online sales and the reopening of DIY stores, and is a sign that the economy started to get back to its... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) The double whammy of the precipitous fall in economic activity and the government’s measures to combat the crisis has already pushed the debt to GDP ratio above 100% for the first time in over 50... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (May) May’s further fall in inflation is probably only the beginnings of a prolonged period of very soft price pressure that we think will prompt the Bank of England to announce a total of £350bn more QE... 17th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Apr./May) The remarkably small rise in unemployment in April suggests that the unemployment rate may not increase quite as far as we had anticipated. Even so, bigger rises are almost certainly on the way as the... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Apr.) At its peak in April the lockdown reduced economic output by 25%, making the coronavirus crisis by far the deepest recession on record. The peak-to-trough fall in GDP was 7% in both the Global... 12th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS All-Sector PMI (May) The rebound in May’s all-sector PMI suggests the economy is now on the long road to normality. But the PMI echoes the message from the high frequency data that the recovery will be protracted. 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Apr.) The record fall in net loans to households and another surge in borrowing by businesses in April is an indication of how the lockdown has affected consumer spending and business revenues. These trends... 2nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response EC Economic Sentiment (May) While the slight easing in social distancing rules in May helped industrial confidence to recover a little, the headline UK Economic Sentiment Indicator fell further in May as services and retail... 28th May 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The 18.1% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in April was easily the largest on record. The good news is that April should be the low point. But the bad news is that May is unlikely to be a huge amount... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Apr.) The double whammy of the precipitous fall in economic activity and the government’s measures to combat the crisis has already pushed borrowing to alarmingly high levels. While the small easing of the... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (May) The nature of the PMIs makes them tricky to interpret, but the rise in the composite PMI from 13.8 in April to 28.9 in May probably shows that April was the low point for activity, and that the slight... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
