UK Data Response Money & Credit (Jul.) July’s money and credit data confirm the resurgence in the housing market while recovering consumer credit suggests that households’ appetite for big ticket purchases is returning. 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response EC Economic Sentiment (Aug.) The small fall in the UK Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in August suggests that the economic recovery might already be starting to fizzle out. What’s more, rising unemployment is likely to further... 28th August 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Aug.) The sharp rise in the composite IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMI in August provided further evidence that the recovery continued at a strong pace in Q3. Even so, we expect rising unemployment to put a brake... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jul.) July saw the fourth biggest monthly deficit in history behind only the first three months of this fiscal year. A massive increase in debt to over £2 trillion for the first time ever and above 100% of... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) Retail sales rose above their pre-pandemic levels in July as non-essential shops were allowed to open for the whole month. But the sector has benefited disproportionately from online spending and a... 21st August 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The sharp rise in CPI inflation from +0.6% to +1.0% came as a bit of a surprise, but it is unlikely to mark the start of an upward trend. CPI inflation still looks on track to fall to within a whisker... 19th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Jun. & Q2) The rises in GDP in May and June mean that in some ways the largest recession on record is already over. But as the full scale of the fallout in unemployment has yet to be felt and as GDP may take 12... 12th August 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun./Jul.) The cracks evident in the latest batch of labour market data are likely to soon turn into a chasm with the unemployment rate rising from 3.9% to around 7.0% by mid-2021. 11th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response EC Economic Sentiment (Jul.) The jump in the UK Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in July is an encouraging sign that the recovery continued at a decent pace at the start of Q3. Even so, rising unemployment is likely to put a... 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Jun.) The signs that firms did not rush quite as fast to take on more debt in June and that households started to borrow again rather than pay down debt suggest that the economy is moving back towards... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul.) The surge in the composite PMI to 57.1 in July is an encouraging sign of further recovery, but it is not an indication that GDP has recovered to its pre-virus level. We don’t expect that to happen... 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Retail sales rose back to pre-pandemic levels in June. But since the sector has benefitted disproportionately from online spending and a switch away from other types of spending, this overstates the... 24th July 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) The smaller rise in public sector borrowing in June compared to May suggests that government support is starting to wind down as the economy reopens. However, government borrowing is still... 21st July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (May/Jun.) The smaller-than-expected fall in employment in May and evidence that the first wave of joblessness in the coronavirus crisis ended in June shows that the furlough scheme has been effective in... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The small rise in CPI inflation from +0.5% in May to +0.6% in June probably won’t be sustained for long as the effects of the Chancellor’s VAT cut for the hospitality/tourism sectors and the “Eat Out... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (May) The 1.8% m/m rise in GDP in May is a disappointing first step on the road to recovery and suggests that hopes of a rapid rebound from the lockdown are wide of the mark. Indeed, the path to full... 14th July 2020 · 4 mins read
