UK Data Response Money & Credit (Sep.) September’s money and credit data showed that the mini-boom in the housing market continued, but a fall in consumer credit suggests that consumer spending was already faltering before the latest round... 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Oct.) The fall in October’s Flash activity PMI comes before the full force of the latest COVID-19 restrictions are felt and supports our view that GDP will stagnate, if not contract, in the last three... 23rd October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The further rise in retail sales in September means that retail sales are now 5.5% above their pre-virus level. But total consumer spending will probably start to stutter over the next few months as... 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) With CPI inflation just 0.5% in September and new COVID-19 restrictions darkening the economic outlook again, it’s hard to think of reasons why the Bank of England won’t launch another £100bn or so of... 21st October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) Monthly borrowing in September was the third highest on record, only exceeded by that in April and May when the pandemic and the fiscal response were at their height. With the recovery stuttering and... 21st October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug./Sep.) The fallout in the labour market from the COVID-19 recession has been worse than previously thought. And with the latest COVID-19 restrictions threatening to stall the economic recovery, if not send... 13th October 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Aug.) The disappointing 2.1% m/m rise in GDP (consensus forecast 4.6%) adds to the evidence that the initial rebound in economic activity is running out of steam. And with new restrictions being imposed to... 9th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Quarterly National Accounts (Q2) The bulk of the pain of Q2’s slump in GDP had been borne by the government rather than households and businesses. But with the recovery already flattening off, fiscal support fading and the full scale... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Aug.) While the resurgence in the housing market continued in August, consumer credit barely rose. And the darkening clouds on the economic horizon may tempt some households to start to rein in spending in... 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) The government borrowed another huge sum of £35.9bn in August as it continued to absorb much of the cost of the COVID-19 crisis. But while the Chancellor announced some modest further support... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Sep.) The drop in the composite IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMI suggests that the recovery has already started to flatten out in September. And reinstating restrictions on business opening hours and encouraging... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Aug.) The further rise in retail sales in August was particularly encouraging as we know non-retail spending picked up at the same time, suggesting that consumer spending has rebounded strongly. 18th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Aug.) The sharp drop in CPI inflation in August probably represents the low point for inflation. But a sustained rise to 2.0% seems unlikely within the next few years. 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jul./Aug.) It’s encouraging that the start of the unwinding of the furlough scheme in August has not led to a surge in job losses. But we think it is only a matter of time before that happens and the... 15th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Jul.) The strong 6.6% m/m rise in GDP in July suggests that the record-breaking negative growth rate of GDP in Q2 will be followed by a record-breaking positive growth rate in Q3. However, July was probably... 11th September 2020 · 3 mins read
