UK Commercial Property Update Is the tide turning for investor sentiment? Despite some reports of open-ended funds increasing their cash reserves, the data for net flows into such funds offer little support for the idea that investor sentiment towards commercial property... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Should we start worrying about rising property yields? The jump in interest rate expectations and bond yields over the past week is consistent with our view that the MPC is poised to raise Bank Rate at its November meeting. And while higher rates will... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will investors continue to shun retail property? In contrast to the office and industrial sectors, retail investment activity has continued to contract. This seems consistent with a soft retail rental outlook which seems unlikely to change quickly... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What’s going on with West End office rents? On past form, the latest agency data suggest that IPD office rental values are on the cusp of a fall of at least 10%. However, such an outcome is best treated as a downside risk as the fall in prime... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Department store yield gap unlikely to fall further John Lewis’ announcement that it may utilise some store space to provide co-working office facilities is a reminder that department store tenant demand is soft. As such, while still high by past... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will rising food prices help stem supermarket rental falls? Rising food prices are not a sign of growing pricing power for supermarket chains. Rather they are another sign of increased pressure on margins, implying that the unprecedented two-year decline in... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What are equity markets telling us about property? It’s not hard to find bearish views on the prospects for UK commercial property. But neither real estate equity prices, nor equity market volatility provide compelling support for the bears. And with... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we too optimistic about Rest of UK offices? During the three quarters since the referendum, Rest of UK office rental values have done relatively little to counteract the yield-driven falls in capital values seen after the vote. However, survey... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Crane Survey shows development edging down Deloitte’s London Crane Survey, released today, highlighted that the size of the active pipeline fell slightly over the last six months. And while new developments continue to break ground, the... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update London office development cycle past its peak London’s office development pipeline has been a source of concern to many for some time now. But a comparison with vacancy rates supports our view that it has not been excessive. It also seems to be... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is industrial’s outperformance a sign of trouble ahead? Previous periods of industrial outperformance have all marked the end of commercial property upturns. But there is no direct causality in this observed correlation. In any event, industrial occupier... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are bank branch closures another sign of high street woes? It is tempting to view the latest round of bank branch closures as another sign of the continuing struggles of UK high streets. Yet not only are the latest closures just the latest point in a well... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does the slowdown in retail sales mean for retail property? All else equal, weaker retail sales should feed through into softer rental value growth. However, retail sales figures have tended to be a poor guide to retail rental growth of late and we see little... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Colliers/REC Property Pricing Survey (Mar.) Today’s Property Pricing survey showed that, in contrast with consensus forecasts for the economy, sentiment appears to have become more bearish towards UK property. However, we would caution against... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we underestimating the upside risks for property? Leading indicators of all-property yield movements suggest that yields could harden by 30bp-50bp this year. And provided that rental values grow by around 1%, capital values would rise by up to 10% as... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Chancellor offers little further help on business rates Hopes that the Chancellor would use today’s Budget to find a way of providing more meaningful relief for those businesses set to see the largest increases in business rates in April, were largely... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
