UK Commercial Property Update London office development cycle past its peak London’s office development pipeline has been a source of concern to many for some time now. But a comparison with vacancy rates supports our view that it has not been excessive. It also seems to be... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is industrial’s outperformance a sign of trouble ahead? Previous periods of industrial outperformance have all marked the end of commercial property upturns. But there is no direct causality in this observed correlation. In any event, industrial occupier... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are bank branch closures another sign of high street woes? It is tempting to view the latest round of bank branch closures as another sign of the continuing struggles of UK high streets. Yet not only are the latest closures just the latest point in a well... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does the slowdown in retail sales mean for retail property? All else equal, weaker retail sales should feed through into softer rental value growth. However, retail sales figures have tended to be a poor guide to retail rental growth of late and we see little... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Colliers/REC Property Pricing Survey (Mar.) Today’s Property Pricing survey showed that, in contrast with consensus forecasts for the economy, sentiment appears to have become more bearish towards UK property. However, we would caution against... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we underestimating the upside risks for property? Leading indicators of all-property yield movements suggest that yields could harden by 30bp-50bp this year. And provided that rental values grow by around 1%, capital values would rise by up to 10% as... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Chancellor offers little further help on business rates Hopes that the Chancellor would use today’s Budget to find a way of providing more meaningful relief for those businesses set to see the largest increases in business rates in April, were largely... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the business rate revaluation a game changer? For most firms, we suspect that any rise in business rates in April will be more manageable than recent headlines seem to imply. Nevertheless, the current confusion over the potential impact of the... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update London’s employment prospects healthy The rate of employment growth in London has roughly halved since May. However, we think that occupier demand will hold up relatively well. Not only do PMIs point to relatively stable rates of... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Supply pipeline dampens the outlook for Birmingham office rents Reports highlighting the very high levels of development activity in the Birmingham office market reinforce our view that the city is now poised for a period of underperformance. But in the absence of... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update CIPS/Markit Construction PMI & RICS Construction (Jan/Q4) The RICS Construction survey and the CIPS/Markit Construction PMI both suggested that the pace of construction activity has slowed over recent months. Yet, in light of our positive view on economic... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update The bankers’ bluff The prospect of financial institutions shifting jobs away from the UK poses a risk the UK economy, as well as commercial property markets. However, there are good reasons to take their threats with a... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does the investment market have in store in 2017? Investment activity fell to more normal levels in 2016 and we expect 2017 to at least match it. Not only have relative yield movements made the UK look more attractive, but the economy has surprised... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Three key risks to UK commercial property in 2017 In our view, 2017 will prove to be a better year for property than the consensus assumes. But there is little room for complacency. A domestic-led inflationary shock, well beyond what central banks... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Could the IPD figures be underestimating capital value falls? A recent report argued that the fall in all-property capital values in the third quarter may have been double the one presented in the IPD quarterly index. Yet the same methodology implies that the... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Construction starts to slow Commercial construction activity faces several headwinds, such as subdued occupier market conditions as well as rising costs. However, if developers believe (as we do) that the economy will recover... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read