UK Commercial Property Update Referendum unlikely to be the catalyst for the next crash Victory for the Leave campaign in yesterday’s EU referendum clearly poses some downside risks to the commercial property market outlook in the UK. Yet we think that fears that the result will trigger... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the slowdown in investment as dramatic as it seems? Last year’s huge surge in investment activity outside the traditional property sectors has not been replicated this year. But even adjusting for this, we have observed a substantial slowdown in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Staying in the EU would not guarantee a spike in investment deals The consensus within the property sector is that, in the event of a vote to remain within the EU, investment demand and activity would rise significantly in the second half of 2016. However, we think... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What explains the widespread falls in property values in March? Economic theory suggests that the increased transaction costs stemming from the recent changes to the stamp duty regime should be fully and quickly reflected in lower capital values. March’s... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update London construction: risk or vote of confidence? London’s active office development pipeline has returned to past peaks, leaving the market vulnerable to an economic downturn. But so close to the EU referendum, we think that it is a sign that... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Central London retail values to hold on to recent gains Over the next few years, we expect high rents and elevated valuations to act as an increasing drag on capital values for the Central London retail market. That said, structural change in the retail... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Could prime shopping centre rents be a bright spot in retail? Our forecasts envisage that shopping centre rental growth will average less than 2%p.a. in 2016 and 2017. But those relatively subdued figures disguise a rather brighter outlook for prime shopping... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is speculative development a problem in the industrial market? Speculative industrial development rose significantly in 2015. But that needs to be balanced against healthy demand, low vacancy rates and limits to future pipelines. In turn, we expect all-industrial... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How worried should we be about February’s drop in investment? Hitting a 58-month low, investment activity surprised on the downside in February. While that could be signalling an imminent turning point for capital values, such an outcome does not seem consistent... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Could sterling be the trigger for the next correction? An out vote in June’s EU referendum could trigger a sharp slide in sterling. But while that might push up prices, it is unlikely to raise interest rates or bond yields to levels that would prove... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the leisure-to-retail discount persist? By the end of 2015, at just under 50bps, the spread between leisure and all-retail yields was lower than at any point since 2007. With less exposure to structural oversupply risks than retail assets... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are real estate equities signalling an imminent correction? The recent slump in real estate equity prices appears to be signalling that a 6% fall in all-property capital values could be in store for H1 2016. However, we are confident that job creation and... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Can recent market turmoil derail UK property? The turn of the year has brought with it renewed uncertainty around the prospects for the UK and the world economy and we have nudged down our UK economic growth forecasts as a result. But the... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Where are capital growth prospects brightest outside of London? Combining a simple assessment of relative yields with the outlook for job creation, and thus occupier demand, suggests that Leeds and Bristol are the two non-London markets with the most upside... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will rate tightening trigger a property correction? Experience shows that there is little direct relationship between all-property yields and Bank Rate. And with little prospect of a marked deterioration in occupier market conditions, next years’... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Autumn Statement 2015: Osborne targets BTL again With little additional detail on business rates, and the Starter Homes Initiative simply a restatement of a policy announced last year, Help to Buy London and the Chancellor’s latest assault on BTL... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read