UK Commercial Property Update Was the uptick in industrial yields unwarranted? Forward-looking aspects of industrial and manufacturing surveys have acted as a fair lead indicatorfor industrial yield movements three and six months ahead. And, with the initial post-referendumshock... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does sterling’s fall mean for hotels and central London retail? Some commentators have touted the recent fall in sterling as a ray of light for hotels and central London retail. However, we think that any uplift to occupier markets will be modest, as the... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What can financial market volatility tell us about pricing? Equity market volatility can be a proxy for economic uncertainty which, in turn, should anticipate movements in all-property yields. This relationship suggests that, given the heightened uncertainty... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How vulnerable are rents to an economic downturn? Relative to their past peaks and underlying trends, rents are only worryingly high in London’s retail market. While that would not prevent large falls if the economy were to suffer a full-blown... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Could monetary policy prop up capital values? As expected, the MPC today voted to cut Bank Rate by 25bps to 0.25% and to restart its asset purchase programme. This should underpin the recent movements in sterling, gilt yields, and equities, and... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Investment activity in H2 likely to be subdued June’s investment data showed steady transactional activity compared to May. But this reflects the final month before the impact of the referendum result is felt. Accordingly, with commercial property... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How has Brexit affected our forecasts? The outcome of the vote has dented the outlook for occupier demand, and as a result we have cut our all-property rental value growth forecasts for the next two years, from 2.9% and 2.4% respectively... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How concerning is the news from open-ended funds? In the wake of the referendum result, some property funds have reacted by cutting the value of their assets, and even stopping fund outflows. However, by limiting outflows, funds can allow the dust to... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How dark are the clouds over London’s skyline? The outlook for London’s office market is undeniably weaker than it was just 10 days ago. But although we have cut our forecasts in response to last week’s vote, we think there are reasons to believe... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Referendum unlikely to be the catalyst for the next crash Victory for the Leave campaign in yesterday’s EU referendum clearly poses some downside risks to the commercial property market outlook in the UK. Yet we think that fears that the result will trigger... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the slowdown in investment as dramatic as it seems? Last year’s huge surge in investment activity outside the traditional property sectors has not been replicated this year. But even adjusting for this, we have observed a substantial slowdown in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Staying in the EU would not guarantee a spike in investment deals The consensus within the property sector is that, in the event of a vote to remain within the EU, investment demand and activity would rise significantly in the second half of 2016. However, we think... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What explains the widespread falls in property values in March? Economic theory suggests that the increased transaction costs stemming from the recent changes to the stamp duty regime should be fully and quickly reflected in lower capital values. March’s... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update London construction: risk or vote of confidence? London’s active office development pipeline has returned to past peaks, leaving the market vulnerable to an economic downturn. But so close to the EU referendum, we think that it is a sign that... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Central London retail values to hold on to recent gains Over the next few years, we expect high rents and elevated valuations to act as an increasing drag on capital values for the Central London retail market. That said, structural change in the retail... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Could prime shopping centre rents be a bright spot in retail? Our forecasts envisage that shopping centre rental growth will average less than 2%p.a. in 2016 and 2017. But those relatively subdued figures disguise a rather brighter outlook for prime shopping... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
