UK Commercial Property Update Hotel capital value growth appears to have peaked Recent weak tourism numbers paint a subdued picture of demand in the hotel sector. But the softness appears to reflect a return to more normal levels, rather than being an indication that hotel demand... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial development activity set to improve The pace of development activity in the industrial sector has softened over the past year. However, leading indicators suggest that a recovery in activity may be in sight. So, although the outlook for... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Little upside for retail warehouse rental growth After growing around 1% y/y for the past three years, annual retail warehouse rental value growth slowed sharply in Q2. Some recovery in rental value growth is expected as real wage growth has turned... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Investment to drop by 15% this year The latest data suggest that commercial property investment for the second half of the year is off to a poor start. With investment in the retail and industrial sectors unlikely to keep pace with 2017... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update The implication of lower equilibrium interest rates The MPC has estimated that the long-term equilibrium interest rate for the UK economy lies between 2% and 3%. Such estimates are uncertain, but they do tend to reinforce the idea that, barring a... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial upswing starts to slow The evidence suggests that the upswing in industrial rental values has started to fade. As investors cotton on and reassess the outlook for income growth, the current, rapid rate of yield compression... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Where to for office rents in the Rest of the South East? The latest labour market data paint a worrying picture for occupier demand and rental value growth in the South East office market. Yet other indicators are more positive, and if we are right to... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the rise of flexible offices distorting vacancy rates? The surge in flexible office take-up over the past five years has raised the question as to whether office vacancy rates could be distorted as flexible offices tend to not be fully occupied. However... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What are the prospects for the leisure sector? In contrast to the problems on the high street, leisure sector fundamentals look strong. The outlook for leisure rental value growth is positive, supported by rising real incomes and solid underlying... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update A boom but no bust? Current forecasts for commercial property prices to plateau rather than peak would represent a significant break from the boom/bust cycles of the past. Yet while some parts of the market look... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does today’s MPC decision mean for property? We do not think recent softer economic data or the MPC’s decision to hold fire today have set the tone for 2018. Our above-consensus growth forecast is consistent with the MPC continuing to increase... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will Rest of South East offices continue to outperform? Compared to other office markets, the Rest of the South East has been performing well. However, we do not expect this outperformance to last. A fresh surge in occupier demand seems unlikely and, as... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Have regional office yields found a floor? According to MSCI, office yields in the Rest of UK office markets have fallen far more sharply over the past year than in the Rest of South East. That has returned the yield spread between the two... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will commercial property lending pick up in 2018? A recent survey found that 72% of lenders intended to increase origination volumes for UK commercial property this year. That offers a sharp contrast to recent market conditions. Nevertheless, we... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How strong is alternative property investment? Expressed as a share of total commercial property investment, deals involving alternative assets accounted for almost £1 in every £6 invested last year, a record high. Yet leaving student housing or... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update No sign of a revival in development activity Development activity is now much more muted than in the run up to the EU referendum suggesting that, while rents and capital values have recovered from the result, developers are still choosing to err... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read