UK Commercial Property Update Falls in real estate equities overstate weakness Falls in real estate equity values over the turn of the year suggest that all-property capital values could decline by 10% y/y. However, we think these movements overstate the weakness. Even so, the... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Outlook for total returns in 2019 Commercial property returns are expected to moderate considerably in 2019 and risks are clearly to the downside. But if we are right and GDP growth rebounds this year, the outlook for office and... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What do non-prime to prime yield spreads suggest? At the all-property level, the difference between non-prime and prime yields does not suggest that either is mispriced. However, non-prime yields for shopping centres look low relative to prime yields... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How will a no deal Brexit impact UK property? We expect a no deal Brexit to bring a hit to UK commercial property capital values of between 5% and 9%, which will be mild compared with past crashes. Even in our central forecast, assuming a Brexit... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Lower office supply to prop up central London rents The volume of office space completed this year in central London is on track to be the highest in 14 years. But with new space under construction declining, a more restrictive supply pipeline is... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the central London shop boom end? After a prolonged period of strength, capital values in central London shops looks likely to slow. However, with the structural drivers of retail demand in London’s favour, we think that longer-term... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Can regional office rental growth pick up further? Subdued office rental value growth in Scotland is weighing on the Rest of the UK aggregate. Although a material upturn in Scottish rental value growth seems unlikely, the outlook for other regional... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update A new norm for London office floor space per worker? The fall in office floor space per worker, aided by the trend towards more flexible working environments, appears to be permanent. It means that each square foot of space has become more productive... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Jobs data provide better read on London office demand Take-up numbers appear to be overstating the strength of underlying occupier demand in London’s office markets. Indeed, the solid, but less buoyant employment data is more consistent with the subdued... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Hotel capital value growth appears to have peaked Recent weak tourism numbers paint a subdued picture of demand in the hotel sector. But the softness appears to reflect a return to more normal levels, rather than being an indication that hotel demand... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial development activity set to improve The pace of development activity in the industrial sector has softened over the past year. However, leading indicators suggest that a recovery in activity may be in sight. So, although the outlook for... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Little upside for retail warehouse rental growth After growing around 1% y/y for the past three years, annual retail warehouse rental value growth slowed sharply in Q2. Some recovery in rental value growth is expected as real wage growth has turned... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Investment to drop by 15% this year The latest data suggest that commercial property investment for the second half of the year is off to a poor start. With investment in the retail and industrial sectors unlikely to keep pace with 2017... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update The implication of lower equilibrium interest rates The MPC has estimated that the long-term equilibrium interest rate for the UK economy lies between 2% and 3%. Such estimates are uncertain, but they do tend to reinforce the idea that, barring a... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial upswing starts to slow The evidence suggests that the upswing in industrial rental values has started to fade. As investors cotton on and reassess the outlook for income growth, the current, rapid rate of yield compression... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Where to for office rents in the Rest of the South East? The latest labour market data paint a worrying picture for occupier demand and rental value growth in the South East office market. Yet other indicators are more positive, and if we are right to... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
