UK Commercial Property Update Is speculative development a problem in the industrial market? Speculative industrial development rose significantly in 2015. But that needs to be balanced against healthy demand, low vacancy rates and limits to future pipelines. In turn, we expect all-industrial... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How worried should we be about February’s drop in investment? Hitting a 58-month low, investment activity surprised on the downside in February. While that could be signalling an imminent turning point for capital values, such an outcome does not seem consistent... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Could sterling be the trigger for the next correction? An out vote in June’s EU referendum could trigger a sharp slide in sterling. But while that might push up prices, it is unlikely to raise interest rates or bond yields to levels that would prove... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the leisure-to-retail discount persist? By the end of 2015, at just under 50bps, the spread between leisure and all-retail yields was lower than at any point since 2007. With less exposure to structural oversupply risks than retail assets... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are real estate equities signalling an imminent correction? The recent slump in real estate equity prices appears to be signalling that a 6% fall in all-property capital values could be in store for H1 2016. However, we are confident that job creation and... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Can recent market turmoil derail UK property? The turn of the year has brought with it renewed uncertainty around the prospects for the UK and the world economy and we have nudged down our UK economic growth forecasts as a result. But the... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Where are capital growth prospects brightest outside of London? Combining a simple assessment of relative yields with the outlook for job creation, and thus occupier demand, suggests that Leeds and Bristol are the two non-London markets with the most upside... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will rate tightening trigger a property correction? Experience shows that there is little direct relationship between all-property yields and Bank Rate. And with little prospect of a marked deterioration in occupier market conditions, next years’... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Autumn Statement 2015: Osborne targets BTL again With little additional detail on business rates, and the Starter Homes Initiative simply a restatement of a policy announced last year, Help to Buy London and the Chancellor’s latest assault on BTL... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What can retail sales data tell us about shopping centre rents? The strength in headline retail sales volumes is at odds with shopping centres’ poor rental performance. This is due to the fact that sales of items that form the core of shopping centres’ offering... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update London’s growing office pipeline not (yet) a cause for concern Construction in London rose sharply over the last six months. That said, fears about oversupply in London’s office market overlook the fact that completions do not deliver a one-for-one rise in stock... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Can competitiveness rankings help explain UK property pricing? Relative economic competitiveness scores go some way to explaining UK pricing in a pan European context. Yet while prime all-property yields look about 50bps lower than the UK’s competitiveness score... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will supermarket returns be even weaker than anticipated? Reflecting weaker occupier demand conditions, total returns in 2015 are likely to undershoot our forecast from last year. However, falling yield spreads against standard shops and a shrinking pipeline... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update National Living Wage will have little impact on occupier demand The impact of the National Living Wage (NLW) will be largest in the retail, leisure and hotel sectors. But even there, increased labour market flexibility should ensure that its introduction has... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is falling space per worker a downside risk for London offices? If occupiers continue to require less office space per employee, our supply concerns about London’s office market would increase. However, with economic conditions and confidence improving over the... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the UK market headed for a crash in 2017? Some forecasters are expecting commercial capital values in the UK to fall sharply in 2017 with an implied yield expansion of up to 120bps. This is unlikely unless we have significantly underestimated... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
