UK Commercial Property Update Retailer closures highlight sector's woes Bad news for the retail sector made almost as many headlines as the snow last week. The easiest conclusion would be to blame online competition. However, there are reasons to think that firm-level... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are Rest of UK office rents pulling their weight? The subdued performance of office rents in Scotland, the West Midlands, and the North East is weighing on the Rest of UK aggregate. Yet, these regions aside, there is clear evidence that the recovery... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we underestimating rental growth in 2018? Our forecasts for all-property rental growth in 2018 sit towards the top the current consensus. Given our above-consensus economic growth forecasts, we see little scope for much weaker rental growth... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update London construction comes off the boil Consistent with slower pace of rental growth and the rise in vacancy rates seen over the last year, the latest Deloitte’s Crane Survey showed a 9% fall in office construction activity in central... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What do we make of the AMV metric? By adding a guide to the probability, and scale of the downside risks to capital values, the PIA’s new Adjusted Market Value measure is a positive contribution to the debate about property pricing... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is London facing a Brexodus? Reports that the Bank of England is assuming 75,000 office-based would shift away from London following Brexit paints a gloomy picture for office markets. However, not only is London less dependent on... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Investor surveys paint mixed picture for property The latest poll from Thomson Reuters suggests that investor demand for UK property could be on the brink of a drop. Yet, a more comprehensive survey by Hodes Weill/Cornell University suggests that the... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the tide turning for investor sentiment? Despite some reports of open-ended funds increasing their cash reserves, the data for net flows into such funds offer little support for the idea that investor sentiment towards commercial property... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Should we start worrying about rising property yields? The jump in interest rate expectations and bond yields over the past week is consistent with our view that the MPC is poised to raise Bank Rate at its November meeting. And while higher rates will... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will investors continue to shun retail property? In contrast to the office and industrial sectors, retail investment activity has continued to contract. This seems consistent with a soft retail rental outlook which seems unlikely to change quickly... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What’s going on with West End office rents? On past form, the latest agency data suggest that IPD office rental values are on the cusp of a fall of at least 10%. However, such an outcome is best treated as a downside risk as the fall in prime... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Department store yield gap unlikely to fall further John Lewis’ announcement that it may utilise some store space to provide co-working office facilities is a reminder that department store tenant demand is soft. As such, while still high by past... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will rising food prices help stem supermarket rental falls? Rising food prices are not a sign of growing pricing power for supermarket chains. Rather they are another sign of increased pressure on margins, implying that the unprecedented two-year decline in... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What are equity markets telling us about property? It’s not hard to find bearish views on the prospects for UK commercial property. But neither real estate equity prices, nor equity market volatility provide compelling support for the bears. And with... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we too optimistic about Rest of UK offices? During the three quarters since the referendum, Rest of UK office rental values have done relatively little to counteract the yield-driven falls in capital values seen after the vote. However, survey... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Crane Survey shows development edging down Deloitte’s London Crane Survey, released today, highlighted that the size of the active pipeline fell slightly over the last six months. And while new developments continue to break ground, the... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read