UK Commercial Property Update Weak sentiment weighing on the leisure sector Weak sentiment and higher vacancy rates point to a softening in leisure rental value growth and higher leisure yields in coming months. In turn, we think that capital values for leisure property could... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Softening land values point to lower industrial rents As a determinant of industrial rental values, the fact that land values are softening is consistent with our forecast for industrial rental value growth to slow further, especially in the Rest of the... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Implications of Brexit developments and CGT changes The extension of the Brexit deadline and new capital gains tax (CGT) rules do little to change our view on the UK commercial property market. Indeed, under any Brexit scenario except no deal we still... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Labour market data positive for London office rents Strong growth in London office-based jobs at the end of last year point to a decent pick up in office rental value growth in central London in the first quarter of 2019. However, with office-based... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail weakness not just reserved for secondary assets The recent poor performance of “average” retail property will persist over the next few years as investors shy away from risky cash flows. However, we also expect prime high streets to underperform... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Has development activity reached a trough? The stabilisation in development activity at the end of last year is encouraging but is not likely to mark the start of an upward trend. Indeed, with borrowing costs set to rise, and rental and... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too pessimistic about UK property yields? Over the last year, UK all-property yields have risen above those in the euro-zone for the first time in a decade and we think this gap will widen. This crossover is unusual, but it largely reflects... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Should we be worried about property fund outflows? The large outflow from open-ended property funds in December was disconcerting. But, barring a no-deal Brexit, it is unlikely to herald a return of the problems seen after the EU Referendum. 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Dismal retail figures not a foretaste of a wider slump A sharper than expected drop in retail values in the latest MSCI Quarterly Index has led us to revise down our forecast. But retail woes are in large part specific to the sector and we don’t expect... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What do retail sales say about retail rents? Despite poor Christmas trading, the improvement in retail sales in the middle of 2018 pointed to a recovery in retail rental value growth this year. Nevertheless, with the retail stock still adjusting... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Brexit implications for property revisited The heavy defeat of Mrs May’s Brexit deal in Parliament means it is more likely that Article 50 will be extended. The greater uncertainty this implies will impact on both the UK economy and on... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update If the Brexit fog clears, will investment rebound? If a Brexit deal is secured, the release of pent-up demand will help investment activity. But, with interest rates rising and valuations looking stretched in many sectors, it’s unlikely that there... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Falls in real estate equities overstate weakness Falls in real estate equity values over the turn of the year suggest that all-property capital values could decline by 10% y/y. However, we think these movements overstate the weakness. Even so, the... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Outlook for total returns in 2019 Commercial property returns are expected to moderate considerably in 2019 and risks are clearly to the downside. But if we are right and GDP growth rebounds this year, the outlook for office and... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What do non-prime to prime yield spreads suggest? At the all-property level, the difference between non-prime and prime yields does not suggest that either is mispriced. However, non-prime yields for shopping centres look low relative to prime yields... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How will a no deal Brexit impact UK property? We expect a no deal Brexit to bring a hit to UK commercial property capital values of between 5% and 9%, which will be mild compared with past crashes. Even in our central forecast, assuming a Brexit... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
