UK Commercial Property Update Shopping centre rental value growth to worsen The recent stabilisation in MSCI’s monthly measure of shopping centre rental value growth appears to reflect coverage issues rather than signs that an improvement is on the way. As such, we are... 7th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will co-working trigger the next crash? There has been a dramatic expansion in the co-working office sector globally over the last five years. As these operators use a different approach to traditional landlords, this brings new risks to... 2nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Impact of CVAs to further weigh on retail rents The use of retail CVAs may have peaked. However, given that CVAs lower the overall market rent and that those retailers who have been subject to a CVA are still at risk of insolvency, we think that... 23rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Why is lower vacancy not pushing up office rents? The divergence between Central London office rental value growth and vacancy rates appears to have reflected a combination of the rising share of take-up by flexible office providers and weak landlord... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Office-based employment growth may have peaked With job creation driven in part by self-employed workers, the recent resilience of the labour market appears to be less positive for occupier demand. What’s more, the weakness in economic activity... 11th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update What does the health of tenants suggest for investors? Measures of covenant strength suggest that retail sector and West End office tenants are most at risk of default. With only a small share of these properties under-rented, this is consistent with our... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How will global property markets perform? After almost a decade of ultra-low interest rates and rising real estate valuations, concerns have been voiced about the outlook for property. In our view, these worries are not completely unfounded... 21st August 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update A cross-check on our all-property yield forecast In coming years, we think that increases in retail yields will cause all-property yields to rise, irrespective of our expectations for interest rates and the economy. However, further out, if all... 20th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update No rebound in investment activity expected this year Weakness in investment activity is likely to extend into the rest of the year. Even if a Brexit deal is secured, we think that higher interest rates and stretched valuations, along with bleak rental... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Overseas demand to be soft regardless of £ moves With valuations looking stretched and the rental value outlook weak, regardless of how the pound moves in response to Brexit, we do not expect a rebound in overseas demand for property. 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Bank of England highlights risk to commercial property The July Financial Stability Report (FSR) noted weak foreign investment and sharp outflows from open-ended property funds as two key risks for commercial property this year. In fact, estimates of the... 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How our Brexit scenarios could impact UK property Although there has been little clarity about Brexit, under any of our scenarios – deal, no deal or repeated delays – we think the economy is well placed for growth to pick up by 2021. In turn... 9th July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Logistics road traffic points to lower industrial demand The recent slowdown in logistics vehicle traffic is consistent with the softness of industrial take-up in the first quarter. Given the supply of industrial property is expected to increase this year... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will regional office rental growth still pick up? Although weakness in occupier conditions in the West Midlands looks likely to weigh on Rest of UK office rental value growth in the near term, an improvement in the South West and less of a drag from... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Higher interest rates not likely to halt lending We think that lower demand for credit as capital values fall will have a larger impact on property lending than higher interest rates because it appears that borrowers will remain comfortable... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How might supply affect regional retail rental values? Although retail demand has improved, the oversupply of property is expected to hold down retail rents for some time. But the speed of adjustment to the ‘new norm’ of retail stock could differ across... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
