UK Commercial Property Update London office completions to reduce Although the rise in office space under construction reported by the summer London Crane Survey highlighted that developers continue to have confidence in the market, other surveys of construction and... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Lower bond yields won’t stop rises in property yields Although bond yields have fallen, property yields have edged higher and we expect this divergence to continue this year as uncertainty has been prolonged and as concerns over rental growth prospects... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Alternatives to prop up overall investment activity The recent strength of alternative investment does not appear to reflect a broadening in the investor base, but with interest rates unlikely to rise until next year, we think that a continuation of... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Supermarkets to outperform the wider retail sector There are no signs that supermarket rental value falls will reverse. But supermarket capital value growth is likely to outpace the wider retail sector in coming years as valuations appear less... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Weak sentiment weighing on the leisure sector Weak sentiment and higher vacancy rates point to a softening in leisure rental value growth and higher leisure yields in coming months. In turn, we think that capital values for leisure property could... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Softening land values point to lower industrial rents As a determinant of industrial rental values, the fact that land values are softening is consistent with our forecast for industrial rental value growth to slow further, especially in the Rest of the... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Implications of Brexit developments and CGT changes The extension of the Brexit deadline and new capital gains tax (CGT) rules do little to change our view on the UK commercial property market. Indeed, under any Brexit scenario except no deal we still... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Labour market data positive for London office rents Strong growth in London office-based jobs at the end of last year point to a decent pick up in office rental value growth in central London in the first quarter of 2019. However, with office-based... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail weakness not just reserved for secondary assets The recent poor performance of “average” retail property will persist over the next few years as investors shy away from risky cash flows. However, we also expect prime high streets to underperform... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Has development activity reached a trough? The stabilisation in development activity at the end of last year is encouraging but is not likely to mark the start of an upward trend. Indeed, with borrowing costs set to rise, and rental and... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too pessimistic about UK property yields? Over the last year, UK all-property yields have risen above those in the euro-zone for the first time in a decade and we think this gap will widen. This crossover is unusual, but it largely reflects... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Should we be worried about property fund outflows? The large outflow from open-ended property funds in December was disconcerting. But, barring a no-deal Brexit, it is unlikely to herald a return of the problems seen after the EU Referendum. 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Dismal retail figures not a foretaste of a wider slump A sharper than expected drop in retail values in the latest MSCI Quarterly Index has led us to revise down our forecast. But retail woes are in large part specific to the sector and we don’t expect... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What do retail sales say about retail rents? Despite poor Christmas trading, the improvement in retail sales in the middle of 2018 pointed to a recovery in retail rental value growth this year. Nevertheless, with the retail stock still adjusting... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Brexit implications for property revisited The heavy defeat of Mrs May’s Brexit deal in Parliament means it is more likely that Article 50 will be extended. The greater uncertainty this implies will impact on both the UK economy and on... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update If the Brexit fog clears, will investment rebound? If a Brexit deal is secured, the release of pent-up demand will help investment activity. But, with interest rates rising and valuations looking stretched in many sectors, it’s unlikely that there... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
