UK Commercial Property Update Could retail warehouse rents provide a positive surprise? The fact that real rental values are 22% below their previous peak and housing transactions are set to strengthen, suggest that retail warehouse rental values have substantial scope to rise. However... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the bond sell-off push property yields higher? The recent surge in gilt yields has reversed much of the widening in the property-to-gilt spread seen after the referendum. Yet, at 390bp, the gap between the all-property yield and gilts is still... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Headline supply overstates the risk to London office rents The size of London’s active pipeline has risen slightly since May. More supply poses a risk to rental values. However, the likelihood of a rental correction depends on both the net increase in supply... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What is driving overseas demand for UK property? The widely held view that the drop in the pound is the primary factor propping up demand for UK property among overseas buyers is not wrong – but it is too simplistic. The fall in sterling will have... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is falling floor space per worker always a risk to availability? If permanent, the trend towards higher density occupation in London’s office market points to an increased risk of oversupply arising from new construction. Yet at the same time, that trend should... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What can we infer about regional prospects from equities? Based on past form, equity prices point to an adjustment in all-property capital values of around 11%in the London, and 13% in the non-London markets. However, with the economy looking to be on a... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How big are the risks for Edinburgh and Glasgow offices? With employment growth set to slow, the rental outlook in the main Scottish office markets is muted. Encouragingly, however, office property pricing in Edinburgh and Glasgow is considerably less... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Was the uptick in industrial yields unwarranted? Forward-looking aspects of industrial and manufacturing surveys have acted as a fair lead indicatorfor industrial yield movements three and six months ahead. And, with the initial post-referendumshock... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does sterling’s fall mean for hotels and central London retail? Some commentators have touted the recent fall in sterling as a ray of light for hotels and central London retail. However, we think that any uplift to occupier markets will be modest, as the... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What can financial market volatility tell us about pricing? Equity market volatility can be a proxy for economic uncertainty which, in turn, should anticipate movements in all-property yields. This relationship suggests that, given the heightened uncertainty... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How vulnerable are rents to an economic downturn? Relative to their past peaks and underlying trends, rents are only worryingly high in London’s retail market. While that would not prevent large falls if the economy were to suffer a full-blown... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Could monetary policy prop up capital values? As expected, the MPC today voted to cut Bank Rate by 25bps to 0.25% and to restart its asset purchase programme. This should underpin the recent movements in sterling, gilt yields, and equities, and... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Investment activity in H2 likely to be subdued June’s investment data showed steady transactional activity compared to May. But this reflects the final month before the impact of the referendum result is felt. Accordingly, with commercial property... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How has Brexit affected our forecasts? The outcome of the vote has dented the outlook for occupier demand, and as a result we have cut our all-property rental value growth forecasts for the next two years, from 2.9% and 2.4% respectively... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How concerning is the news from open-ended funds? In the wake of the referendum result, some property funds have reacted by cutting the value of their assets, and even stopping fund outflows. However, by limiting outflows, funds can allow the dust to... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How dark are the clouds over London’s skyline? The outlook for London’s office market is undeniably weaker than it was just 10 days ago. But although we have cut our forecasts in response to last week’s vote, we think there are reasons to believe... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read