UK Commercial Property Update Is the business rate revaluation a game changer? For most firms, we suspect that any rise in business rates in April will be more manageable than recent headlines seem to imply. Nevertheless, the current confusion over the potential impact of the... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update London’s employment prospects healthy The rate of employment growth in London has roughly halved since May. However, we think that occupier demand will hold up relatively well. Not only do PMIs point to relatively stable rates of... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Supply pipeline dampens the outlook for Birmingham office rents Reports highlighting the very high levels of development activity in the Birmingham office market reinforce our view that the city is now poised for a period of underperformance. But in the absence of... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update CIPS/Markit Construction PMI & RICS Construction (Jan/Q4) The RICS Construction survey and the CIPS/Markit Construction PMI both suggested that the pace of construction activity has slowed over recent months. Yet, in light of our positive view on economic... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update The bankers’ bluff The prospect of financial institutions shifting jobs away from the UK poses a risk the UK economy, as well as commercial property markets. However, there are good reasons to take their threats with a... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does the investment market have in store in 2017? Investment activity fell to more normal levels in 2016 and we expect 2017 to at least match it. Not only have relative yield movements made the UK look more attractive, but the economy has surprised... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Three key risks to UK commercial property in 2017 In our view, 2017 will prove to be a better year for property than the consensus assumes. But there is little room for complacency. A domestic-led inflationary shock, well beyond what central banks... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Could the IPD figures be underestimating capital value falls? A recent report argued that the fall in all-property capital values in the third quarter may have been double the one presented in the IPD quarterly index. Yet the same methodology implies that the... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Construction starts to slow Commercial construction activity faces several headwinds, such as subdued occupier market conditions as well as rising costs. However, if developers believe (as we do) that the economy will recover... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Could retail warehouse rents provide a positive surprise? The fact that real rental values are 22% below their previous peak and housing transactions are set to strengthen, suggest that retail warehouse rental values have substantial scope to rise. However... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the bond sell-off push property yields higher? The recent surge in gilt yields has reversed much of the widening in the property-to-gilt spread seen after the referendum. Yet, at 390bp, the gap between the all-property yield and gilts is still... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Headline supply overstates the risk to London office rents The size of London’s active pipeline has risen slightly since May. More supply poses a risk to rental values. However, the likelihood of a rental correction depends on both the net increase in supply... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What is driving overseas demand for UK property? The widely held view that the drop in the pound is the primary factor propping up demand for UK property among overseas buyers is not wrong – but it is too simplistic. The fall in sterling will have... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is falling floor space per worker always a risk to availability? If permanent, the trend towards higher density occupation in London’s office market points to an increased risk of oversupply arising from new construction. Yet at the same time, that trend should... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What can we infer about regional prospects from equities? Based on past form, equity prices point to an adjustment in all-property capital values of around 11%in the London, and 13% in the non-London markets. However, with the economy looking to be on a... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How big are the risks for Edinburgh and Glasgow offices? With employment growth set to slow, the rental outlook in the main Scottish office markets is muted. Encouragingly, however, office property pricing in Edinburgh and Glasgow is considerably less... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
