UK Commercial Property Update Is UK property fair value? Our analysis suggests that UK commercial property is fairly valued when compared to the pricing of alternative assets. However, with that finding based on the assumption that current income streams... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update No respite for larger shopping centres Shopping centres are likely to suffer in the near term as people avoid enclosed spaces, shop more online and as retailers continue to go bust or consolidate space. Since mid-2018, rents have... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Limited downside risk to prices from Brexit The impact of the pandemic on property has superseded that of Brexit, but that's not to say that Brexit risks can or should be fully discounted. While we expect a slim deal to be agreed this year, we... 28th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Reservations about the hotel recovery Travel restrictions and caution shown by holidaymakers have hit the hotel sector hard. While there has been a boost from the temporary cut in VAT for hospitality and tourism, weak global growth and... 11th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for office-based employment? We expect office-based employment growth to be faster than total employment growth by around 0.3-0.5% ppts each year over the next decade in the US, the UK and the euro-zone. The coronavirus crisis... 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we too gloomy about industrial? The strength of industrial take-up in Q2 was driven by a ramp-up in delivery capacity, particularly by supermarkets and Amazon. Along with the continued upward trend in the MSCI monthly data, this... 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Better economic data not yet a cause for celebration The most recent UK economic indicators have been better than expected. This suggests potential upside to our commercial property rental forecasts. But there are significant uncertainties ahead and... 9th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update REIT prices highlight wide sectoral divergence While all-property capital values lag real estate equity prices, the movement in REIT prices can also tell us something about sector performance. The staggered recovery in REITs from March’s low point... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Shopping centre slump set to continue UK retailers continue to suffer, even given the recent re-opening of shops and signs of improving sales. Shopping centres have fared worst and this has been highlighted by the woes of owner Intu. And... 26th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is it last orders for pub investors? While there has been a decline in the number of pubs, revenues had been rising in recent years. This has led to some big deals in the sector and falling prime yields. Nevertheless, when pubs re-open... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Headwinds for student accommodation While demand for student accommodation has risen during past downturns, we expect it will be very different this time. Uncertainty around face-to-face lectures and travel restrictions could lead to... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are forecasters now too pessimistic about retail rents? The latest IPF Consensus Forecasts revealed sharper than expected downgrades for the next few years, largely based on revisions to retail rents. Our views are now above this consensus, though we don’t... 12th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rise in Central London vacancy to hurt office rents A reasonable proportion of the Central London office completions for this year are likely to be pushed into 2021, but a fall in employment will hit demand for office space and lead to a pick-up in... 9th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How will eased lockdown affect property development? Easing movement restrictions, combined with government support and strong underlying demand will allow housebuilding to bounce back fairly quickly. But weak occupier demand and falling capital values... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Impact of WFH on European office demand Data from Europe suggest that the relationship between working from home and office space per worker is weak. And even if working from home becomes more prevalent in the next few years, we think that... 11th May 2020 · 3 mins read
