UK Commercial Property Update No post-election bounce, but upside to capital values The election of a Conservative government with a large majority is likely to mean a slightly improved commercial property outlook. While we do not expect a post-election rebound, lower interest rates... 24th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will property fund outflows hit capital values? Recent mass retail fund outflows are not good news for the beleaguered UK commercial property market. In our view, this trend is not surprising given declining returns and, while we see downside to... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Investment unlikely to rebound in 2020 Assuming a Brexit deal is agreed by the 31st January, the improved economic outlook is unlikely to support a rebound in commercial property investment in 2020. Indeed, we predict that a rise in yields... 6th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Potential upside for office rental value growth Given that employment growth has probably peaked, we expect office occupier demand to slow further over the next year or so, which will act as a drag on rental value growth. But the labour market may... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Elections, Brexit and Property With Brexit delayed and a general election ahead, all our Brexit scenarios remain on the table. However, recent developments mean that, under each scenario, we think that all-property capital values... 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update What happens to London’s offices if WeWork fails? The financial woes of WeWork have cast doubts over its long-run future and, given the reliance of the London office market on the co-working trailblazer, on the property outlook. In our view, this is... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Soft tourism to weigh on the hotel sector We expect weak global growth to keep a lid on UK tourist flows. And with yields most likely to continue to rise, hotel capital values are likely to fall over the next few years. 18th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Shopping centre rental value growth to worsen The recent stabilisation in MSCI’s monthly measure of shopping centre rental value growth appears to reflect coverage issues rather than signs that an improvement is on the way. As such, we are... 7th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will co-working trigger the next crash? There has been a dramatic expansion in the co-working office sector globally over the last five years. As these operators use a different approach to traditional landlords, this brings new risks to... 2nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Impact of CVAs to further weigh on retail rents The use of retail CVAs may have peaked. However, given that CVAs lower the overall market rent and that those retailers who have been subject to a CVA are still at risk of insolvency, we think that... 23rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Why is lower vacancy not pushing up office rents? The divergence between Central London office rental value growth and vacancy rates appears to have reflected a combination of the rising share of take-up by flexible office providers and weak landlord... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Office-based employment growth may have peaked With job creation driven in part by self-employed workers, the recent resilience of the labour market appears to be less positive for occupier demand. What’s more, the weakness in economic activity... 11th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update What does the health of tenants suggest for investors? Measures of covenant strength suggest that retail sector and West End office tenants are most at risk of default. With only a small share of these properties under-rented, this is consistent with our... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How will global property markets perform? After almost a decade of ultra-low interest rates and rising real estate valuations, concerns have been voiced about the outlook for property. In our view, these worries are not completely unfounded... 21st August 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update A cross-check on our all-property yield forecast In coming years, we think that increases in retail yields will cause all-property yields to rise, irrespective of our expectations for interest rates and the economy. However, further out, if all... 20th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update No rebound in investment activity expected this year Weakness in investment activity is likely to extend into the rest of the year. Even if a Brexit deal is secured, we think that higher interest rates and stretched valuations, along with bleak rental... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read