UK Commercial Property Update Are forecasters now too pessimistic about retail rents? The latest IPF Consensus Forecasts revealed sharper than expected downgrades for the next few years, largely based on revisions to retail rents. Our views are now above this consensus, though we don’t... 12th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rise in Central London vacancy to hurt office rents A reasonable proportion of the Central London office completions for this year are likely to be pushed into 2021, but a fall in employment will hit demand for office space and lead to a pick-up in... 9th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How will eased lockdown affect property development? Easing movement restrictions, combined with government support and strong underlying demand will allow housebuilding to bounce back fairly quickly. But weak occupier demand and falling capital values... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Impact of WFH on European office demand Data from Europe suggest that the relationship between working from home and office space per worker is weak. And even if working from home becomes more prevalent in the next few years, we think that... 11th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update US investors would do well to stay at home In light of the pandemic, our forecasts for developed market commercial property returns have been revised lower. Nevertheless, the relativities between the key markets are broadly unchanged, meaning... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Can landlords survive the lockdown? While there are fewer concerns that this property downturn could bring problems for lenders than during the GFC, financial risks remain, especially on the landlord side. 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Investment activity to fall by a third this year Due to the spread of COVID-19, it is increasingly likely that investment activity will slump to a record low level in the second quarter. Even though we expect a pickup in the second half of the year... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Early data hint at the scale of the downturn The latest monthly figures from MSCI confirm initial fears about the impact of COVID-19 on property. And this is only the start, figures for the coming months are likely to be worse still as the... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Online boost will not prevent wider industrial woes Social distancing measures have accelerated the shift to online spending in recent weeks. But the upside of increased online spending is limited to a few occupiers, most notably supermarkets, and is... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail pain will be reflected in sharp rental falls The rapid spread of coronavirus over the last month has dealt another body blow to UK retail. We expected the sector to see rental falls pre-COVID, but these could now be closer to 10% in 2020... 3rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is co-working a further risk to the office sector? While COVID-19 will hit co-working hard, given the relative size of this subsector, we don’t think it will be large enough to impact rents in the overall office sector. 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update What do equity price falls imply for European property? The past relationship suggests that the recent 10% to 50% fall in real estate equity prices provide an indication of the direction values will move in the direct market, but not the likely extent of... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property is the victim not the villain this time Property has generally been at the centre of the most severe economic downturns in recent decades. But this time it is different. Although we think the commercial market is likely to experience a... 26th March 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Capital values to fall 10% in COVID-19 disruption Our latest UK economic downgrades mean that it is now inevitable that there will be a big hit to commercial property values, which we expect to fall by around 10% this year. And while conditions are... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rest of South East industrial rents to outperform In recent years, industrial rental growth for Rest of South East has exceeded growth in Rest of UK. We think that this has been driven by land constraints and changing occupier demand patterns, which... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Business rates relief won’t ease retail sector woes The suspension of business rates for many retail, leisure and hospitality firms announced in the Budget is welcome, but unlikely to provide much relief to the retail sector. Indeed, the coronavirus... 13th March 2020 · 3 mins read
