Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi unemployment rate to fall only gradually Saudi Arabia’s unemployment rate has risen sharply in the past year and, while we expect it to fall back, the weak recovery means that it might take many years before it gets close to its pre-pandemic... 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE to keep rates on hold until later this year The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) opted to keep interest rates on hold at its first meeting of the year and, with inflation set to rise over the next 6-9 months, we think policymakers will keep rates... 4th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai: a final hurdle before entering the home straight The economic recovery in Dubai is going to be put on ice as a worsening COVID-19 outbreak results in increased precautionary behaviour and tighter containment measures. But if the strong start to the... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery struggling to gather momentum Saudi Arabia’s economic struggled at the end of last year and a combination of a slow start to the vaccination programme, voluntary oil output cuts and tight fiscal policy means that the outlook for... 19th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rising inflation to keep easing cycle on pause Egyptian inflation is likely to rise over the next 6-9 months due to stronger food and fuel inflation, as well as a weaker pound, which will prevent the central bank from resuming its easing cycle for... 13th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update End to Qatar blockade not an economic gamechanger The announcement that Saudi Arabia will remove its three-year blockade of Qatar will help to strengthen political ties in the Gulf, but the direct economic benefits from the détente are likely to be... 5th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to look out for in 2021 The roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines and easing of containment measures will boost all the MENA economies next year, although this will be quicker in the Gulf countries which have greater access to... 21st December 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget: keeping a tight grip on the purse strings The Saudi 2021 budget shows that the recent improvement in the oil market hasn’t swayed officials to alter their plans to keep fiscal policy tight in the coming years. This will help to keep the... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Adjusting our forecasts in light of COVID-19 vaccines A rebound in global economic activity triggered by COVID-19 vaccines will lift the oil market and, in turn, the Gulf economies over the coming quarters. But one legacy of the crisis is that these... 7th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Are the region’s currency pegs still credible? Policymakers across the region have drawn down foreign exchange reserves this year in order to prop up currency pegs and, in the Gulf countries at least, this can be sustained for some time to come... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE to continue cautious loosening cycle The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) unexpectedly moved to cut interest rates for a second consecutive meeting on Thursday evening and, with inflation set to remain weak, we think that the easing cycle has... 13th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery hopes dim Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has lost momentum in recent months and persistent low oil prices reinforce our view that policymakers are unlikely to row back on fiscal austerity and there is rising... 9th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will Gulf governments finance budget deficits? The deterioration in Gulf public finances this year has pushed governments across the region to finance a significant portion of their budget deficits through international debt markets, which we... 5th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the fall in price of oil mean for the Gulf? The latest fall in the price of oil increases the chances that current OPEC+ production quotas are extended beyond the end of this year and reinforces our view that governments across the Gulf are... 2nd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: lower inflation target would temper rate cuts The weakness of Egypt’s inflation reading for September is likely to prompt another rate cut at the central bank’s (CBE’s) next meeting. With inflation persistently undershooting the CBE’s target... 14th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s debts still a major cause for concern Fears over Dubai’s debts have re-emerged in recent weeks and, in this Update, we provide revised estimates of the Emirate’s debt pile. The short point is that the debts of Dubai’s government and of... 6th October 2020 · 4 mins read
