Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE still reluctant to cut rates, for now The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates on hold for a fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday as policymakers remained cautious about delivering more monetary stimulus. That said, with the... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on the Israel-UAE peace deal The normalising of relations between Israel and the UAE may pave the way for similar agreements with the other Gulf countries, notably Saudi Arabia. The move might help to foster economic relations... 13th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget deficit to narrow, debt to rise Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit will narrow over the coming years as oil prices recover and the government ploughs ahead with austerity. But debt will rise further, reaching close to 40% of GDP by end... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The impact of the Beirut blast The major blast in Beirut yesterday has severe humanitarian consequences, and the incident threatens to deepen the country’s economic and political crises. 5th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts, austerity to hold back Saudi recovery The Saudi economy has embarked on a recovery in the past couple of months, but fiscal austerity and oil production cuts, as well as the ongoing suspension of pilgrimages, mean that it is likely to be... 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The future of Saudi Arabia’s oil policy Saudi Arabia has grown increasingly frustrated with other oil producers’ failure to comply with the OPEC+ oil output cuts and, while we think that the current deal will remain intact for now, the risk... 23rd July 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Sovereign debt risks growing in Tunisia Tunisia’s public finances have deteriorated sharply over the past decade and the government’s debt burden appears to be on an unsustainable path. This would be exacerbated if external financing... 8th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi past the worst but austerity will hinder recovery The Saudi economy contracted by 1% y/y in Q1 and the figures from Q2 point to an even sharper downturn in Q2 due to the coronavirus crisis. The lifting of the lockdown this month is helping to support... 30th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks to weather the storm, but pockets of risk linger Banking sectors across the Middle East and North Africa are generally well placed to weather the current economic downturn but there are pockets of vulnerability, particularly in Qatar and parts of... 17th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon’s crisis goes from really bad to even worse Lebanon’s government has made little progress with its economic rescue plan and there’s a growing likelihood that the sovereign debt and currency crises already underway will ultimately lead to series... 15th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi inflation and the impact of the VAT hike The tripling of the VAT rate from July will cause inflation in Saudi Arabia to jump, but the impact may be relatively less severe than it was when VAT was first introduced at the start of 2018. That... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Remittance slump adds to economic headwinds The measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak have shut down economies across the world, leading to job losses and falls in income. Migrant workers appear to have felt the brunt of this and the... 3rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: Q2 collapse to be followed by weak recovery Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy held up relatively well in Q1, but more timely low-profile data point to a collapse in activity in Q2. And, as lockdown measures are eased, the onset of... 1st June 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s FX reserves: when should we worry? Saudi Arabia’s foreign exchange reserves are being depleted rapidly to protect the dollar peg, but we think that they would need to fall by more than $380bn to less than $100bn before the monetary... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman: no devaluation, but a big dose of austerity Oman is one of the most vulnerable economies in the Gulf to a period of ultra-low oil prices but we think that financial support from its neighbours will avert the need to abandon the dollar peg. Even... 18th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE holds rates as it keeps a close eye on the pound The Central Bank of Egypt’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged today was not a major surprise given that efforts to prop up the pound have taken precedence over supporting the economy. If the... 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
