Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Adjusting our forecasts in light of COVID-19 vaccines A rebound in global economic activity triggered by COVID-19 vaccines will lift the oil market and, in turn, the Gulf economies over the coming quarters. But one legacy of the crisis is that these... 7th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Are the region’s currency pegs still credible? Policymakers across the region have drawn down foreign exchange reserves this year in order to prop up currency pegs and, in the Gulf countries at least, this can be sustained for some time to come... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE to continue cautious loosening cycle The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) unexpectedly moved to cut interest rates for a second consecutive meeting on Thursday evening and, with inflation set to remain weak, we think that the easing cycle has... 13th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery hopes dim Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has lost momentum in recent months and persistent low oil prices reinforce our view that policymakers are unlikely to row back on fiscal austerity and there is rising... 9th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will Gulf governments finance budget deficits? The deterioration in Gulf public finances this year has pushed governments across the region to finance a significant portion of their budget deficits through international debt markets, which we... 5th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the fall in price of oil mean for the Gulf? The latest fall in the price of oil increases the chances that current OPEC+ production quotas are extended beyond the end of this year and reinforces our view that governments across the Gulf are... 2nd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: lower inflation target would temper rate cuts The weakness of Egypt’s inflation reading for September is likely to prompt another rate cut at the central bank’s (CBE’s) next meeting. With inflation persistently undershooting the CBE’s target... 14th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s debts still a major cause for concern Fears over Dubai’s debts have re-emerged in recent weeks and, in this Update, we provide revised estimates of the Emirate’s debt pile. The short point is that the debts of Dubai’s government and of... 6th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait’s new Emir faces tough challenges The passing of Kuwaiti’s Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah has raised some concerns over political stability in the country, and, while the transition will probably prove to be smooth, the new Emir... 29th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE likely to continue with gradual monetary easing The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50bps at Thursday’s MPC meeting after a six month pause to the loosening cycle. Policymakers are likely to remain cautious about future easing... 25th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer resilience unlikely to last Consumer spending in Saudi Arabia seems to have bounced back quickly in recent months, but the steep VAT hike and the suspension of the Cost of Living Allowance means that this is unlikely to be... 16th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to stay below target Egypt’s economic recovery, a fall in the pound and a small rise in global oil prices are likely to cause the headline rate of inflation to drift up over the coming months. But it is unlikely to reach... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery stutters Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has faltered in recent months and the backdrop of fiscal austerity, the partial suspension of pilgrimages and oil production cuts mean that it is likely to remain slow... 7th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Deflation in the Gulf to persist The coronavirus crisis has caused domestic demand across the Gulf to slump and deflation is likely to persist, with the key exception of Saudi Arabia. Most places are well placed to deal with the... 2nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the state of coronavirus in MENA Governments across the Gulf have managed to get on top of coronavirus outbreaks but Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, and Lebanon have seen the virus spread rapidly in recent weeks. These economies are the... 26th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external strains easing, but pound to weaken The worst of the strains in Egypt’s balance of payments is probably now over and the current account deficit should narrow over the coming quarters, but we still think that the pound will gradually... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
