Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts likely to drag on Saudi recovery The OPEC+ oil quota cuts announced today are unlikely to have a significant economic impact on most Gulf economies, but they will on Saudi Arabia. The direct impact of the output cuts means GDP growth... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon: how do things play out from here? The political situation in Lebanon shows little sign of improving and the risk of a disorderly devaluation, sovereign default and banking crisis are rising by the day. Our sense is that the... 4th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic downturn deepened in Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted by around 0.5% y/y in Q3 as a greater drag from oil production cuts (as well as the temporary disruption from the attacks on oil... 27th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon and devaluation: a bitter medicine? Pressure is growing on Lebanon’s dollar peg and, in the event of a devaluation, the pound could fall by as much as 50% against the dollar. A messy sovereign default and a deep recession would follow... 19th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle has further to run The 100bp interest rate cut delivered by Egypt’s central bank today is likely to be followed by further easing in the coming months. While we expect inflation to edge up in the near term, it will... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s banking risks re-emerging The boom in credit in Qatar since the turn of the year has caused a renewed build-up of vulnerabilities in the banking sector. Severe balance sheets strains should be avoided, but the recent pace of... 13th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: inflation to stay weak, more rate cuts on the way The decline in Egyptian inflation to a 14-year low of 3.1% y/y in October raises the risk that the central bank lowers interest rates by more than the 100bp that we have pencilled in for Thursday’s... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How credible are the region’s dollar pegs? Many of the non-oil producing countries in the region have tended to support their dollar pegs by maintaining a level of FX reserves sufficient to cover the monetary base. In Egypt and Jordan... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The economic implications of the Aramco IPO The upcoming sale of a stake in Saudi Aramco would probably make the government less inclined to implement fresh austerity. The long-term impact on the Saudi economy will depend on whether this leads... 4th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic downturn deepens Our Tracker suggests that the impact of oil production cuts caused the Saudi economy to contract in Q3. And output probably fell at a steeper pace in Q4. 28th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon quickly approaching a crunch point The protests in Lebanon (and policymakers’ response) underline that pushing through the austerity needed to stabilise the public finances is politically impossible. With large debt repayments due over... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait’s weak economic performance to continue Economic growth in Kuwait is likely to remain sluggish in the coming years due to the impact of oil production cuts as well as ongoing tensions between the government and parliament, which will... 15th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s election outturn threatens policy paralysis Tunisia’s new president will face the immediate challenge of a fractured parliament and, amid what are set to be arduous coalition talks, policy paralysis is likely to set in. The country’s large... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downturn to deepen Our GDP Tracker suggests that the intensifying drag from oil production cuts caused the Saudi economy to slow even further at the start of Q3. Things are likely to get even worse in the coming months... 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s economic struggles to continue Dubai’s economy slowed in 2018 and the activity data for this year suggest that growth has stayed weak. The 2020 World Expo will provide a fillip to the economy, but a number of other factors mean... 2nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weak inflation spurs another aggressive rate cut The Central Bank of Egypt shrugged off the market volatility following recent protests across the country and lowered interest rates by another 100bp, to 13.25%, at today’s meeting. So long as the... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
