Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How long will the Gulf endure oil at $20pb? Brent crude is closing in on $20pb and, if there are no signs of a recovery in the coming months, the chances that Saudi Arabia pushes for fresh oil output cuts will grow. Meanwhile, we are... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Region to suffer worst downturn since the 1980s Governments across the Middle East and North Africa have taken increasingly draconian steps over the past couple of weeks to contain the coronavirus outbreak and, as a result, there will be much more... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tourism slump to hit parts of the region hard Efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak look set to hit tourism sectors across the MENA region hard. The North African economies, as well as Dubai, Lebanon and Jordan, are most vulnerable and the... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will the Gulf’s dollar pegs survive the fall in oil prices? The collapse in oil prices over the past week has put pressure on the Gulf’s dollar pegs, but we think that a wave of devaluations is extremely unlikely. Large foreign exchange savings provide... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai the most vulnerable to coronavirus outbreak Efforts to contain the coronavirus will weigh heavily on non-oil sectors across the MENA region over the coming weeks and months. Dubai is the most vulnerable and this could ultimately ignite fears... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How long can Saudi Arabia weather low oil prices? The fact that the fall in oil prices will cause Saudi Arabia’s government to run a large budget deficit has prompted suggestions that it might have to shift oil policy to prop up prices. But the... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s oil policy shift and what it means for the Gulf The sharp fall in oil prices today will push current account and budget positions into deficit across the Gulf, but these can be financed from large savings for some time. Dollar pegs should stay... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon opts for default The news that Lebanon’s government won’t repay a $1.2bn Eurobond maturing has caused bond prices across the curve to fall and all eyes will now turn to the government’s plans to restructure its debts... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon: how might a debt restructuring play out? Lebanon’s government is set to decide tomorrow on whether to repay a $1.2bn Eurobond maturing on Monday. Whatever the decision, a debt restructuring inevitably lies in store and the government will... 6th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The impact of the coronavirus outbreak on MENA The spread of the coronavirus has prompted us to lower our 2020 GDP growth forecasts for the MENA region by 0.5-2.0% and the risks remain skewed to the downside. The UAE is the most vulnerable economy... 3rd March 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downturn has passed its trough Our GDP Tracker suggests that the downturn in Saudi Arabia’s economy deepened in Q4 of last year and, while the worst has probably now passed, the downside risks to the outlook are mounting. 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE to pause easing cycle for a little longer The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision to keep interest rates unchanged last night for a second consecutive meeting suggests that policymakers are more concerned by the recent uptick in inflation... 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Currency adjustments lie in store in a few economies Current account positions in the largest MENA economies (particularly in the Gulf, but also Egypt) have improved over the past few years. But deficits elsewhere remain large. And Algeria, Tunisia and... 19th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon: what will an IMF deal look like? Lebanon’s new government appears to be warming to the idea of going to the IMF, which would reduce the risk of a disorderly debt default that causes severe strains in the local banking sector. But... 13th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Moroccan car sector to drive recovery this year Morocco’s economy has slowed over the past few years, but we think that a recovery will take hold in 2020. Further out, we expect that the country will record growth in excess of 5% a year by 2030. 5th February 2020 · 4 mins read
