Middle East & North Africa Economics Update SAMA likely has more to do to ease liquidity concerns Reports that the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) has injected liquidity into the banking sector appears to be a consequence of a lack of FX intervention (despite high oil prices), tight fiscal policy and... 30th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf a bright spot We think that rising oil production and high global energy prices will result in rapid GDP growth this year and next across the Gulf economies. Growth is likely to be well above consensus expectations... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy OPEC+ to change tack from September Whilst OPEC+ has been failing to meet its production quotas in recent months, it will technically finish unwinding its pandemic-related supply cuts come September. We think OPEC+ will then move to a... 23rd June 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt public finance risks contained… for now Egypt’s public debt dynamics look increasingly fragile due to a combination of the extremely short average maturity of its debt, rapidly rising yields, and a growing share of debt denominated in... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s privatisation drive and lessons from history Egypt’s government is set to kick off its latest privatisation drive later this year, but its track record provides little hope that it will meet targets. The authorities are likely to retain a high... 6th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi set for bumper GDP growth this year Saudi Arabia’s economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade in Q1 and we think this strength will carry on over the rest of this year. The combination of rising oil output and the increasing... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi inflation to stay in check, risks lie to downside Headline inflation in Saudi Arabia rose to 2.3% y/y in April and we think that it will continue to accelerate over the coming months. Unlike in other parts of the emerging world, however, inflation... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What Sheikh Khalifa’s passing means for the UAE The passing of the UAE’s President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al Nayhan today is unlikely to alter the economic outlook with GDP set to grow rapidly amid stronger oil output and looser fiscal policy... 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external strains still a risk despite devaluation The war in Ukraine has compounded strains in Egypt’s balance of payments and prompted officials to devalue the pound. The key risk now is that the authorities revert to heavily managing the nominal... 9th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy on the up Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has strengthened in recent months and, with oil output set to be raised further, the economy will record its fastest rate of growth in over a decade in 2022. 19th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation and rates to rise much further Egyptian inflation rose to a near-three year high in March and will continue to pick up on the back of the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and last month’s devaluation. We now think interest rates... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon unlikely to meet IMF demands Lebanon has secured a staff-level agreement with the IMF, but we think that it is highly unlikely that policymakers will push through the long list of reforms that are needed to unlock that financing... 8th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia heading toward default Political developments and spillovers from the war in Ukraine have compounded concerns over Tunisia’s public finances and cemented our view that the government will default sooner rather than later... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Regional divergence to widen on back of Ukraine war The spillovers from the war in Ukraine will further drive divergence in economic growth across the Middle East and North Africa. The Gulf economies stand to benefit as oil production is likely to be... 23rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt returns to orthodoxy with rate hike and devaluation The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision to hike interest rates by 100bp, to 9.25%, and devalue the pound by 10% against the dollar suggests that policymakers have finally woken up to the worsening... 21st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi, China and renminbi oil sales Were Saudi Arabia to accept renminbi for its oil exports to China, it would be a symbolic move but it would also run into a number of economic practicalities, especially given that the Kingdom could... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
