Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy on course for strong 2022 Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has hit a bump in the road over the past month or so as the Omicron variant has caused activity in the Kingdom’s non-oil economy to slow. But the experience from other... 26th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect in MENA in 2022 We think that GDP growth in the Gulf will be stronger than most expect this year on the back of rising oil output. Elsewhere, we expect a larger depreciation of the Egyptian pound than most anticipate... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Omicron puts a small bump on the road to recovery December’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that activity in non-oil sectors in the Gulf softened due to the uncertainty created by the emergence of the Omicron variant. Restrictions have been... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Energy market poses downside risk to the Gulf OPEC+ left the door open last week to change its oil output policy before the next meeting and, if output is raised more slowly or not at all, this would knock GDP growth back mechanically in the Gulf... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf ends 2021 strongly but Omicron a key threat November’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that non-oil sectors in the Gulf continued their recent strong trend, but the emergence of the Omicron variant – and threat of tighter restrictions –... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy set for a strong end to the year The economic recovery in Saudi Arabia has picked up pace and should end the year on a strong note. The emergence of the Omicron variant has clouded the outlook, but for now we expect economic growth... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s fragile external position poses risk to dinar Tunisia’s external position is in a dire state and policymakers have little ammunition available to defend the dinar. We think the currency will depreciate by more than 10% against the euro by the end... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pockets of vulnerability in MENA banking sectors Most banking sectors in the region (with the notable exception of Lebanon) have, so far, come through the COVID-19 crisis in relatively good shape. But with support programmes now being withdrawn... 18th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery set up for strong end to the year Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery looks to have picked up speed in Q3 and should remain strong over the rest of this year and 2022, underpinned by rising oil output. 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain & Oman: austerity and Gulf help needed The rally in oil prices has opened the door for some of the larger Gulf economies to loosen fiscal policy, but governments in Bahrain and Oman will need to continue tightening to repair their dire... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rising inflation to delay resumption of CBE’s easing The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting amid rising price pressures. Against this backdrop, we think that the central bank is likely to delay the... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the energy price surge mean for the Gulf? Higher oil and gas revenues are likely to prompt a modest shift to looser fiscal policy in the large Gulf economies, although Bahrain and Oman will still need to stick to austerity. Meanwhile, if OPEC... 20th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s recovery facing several headwinds Egypt’s economy has emerged from the COVID-19 crisis relatively well, but the country’s lagging vaccine rollout, a slow return of international tourists and tight fiscal policy mean that the recovery... 6th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai World Expo: near-term boost, debt risks linger The long-awaited World Expo in Dubai will get underway next Friday and while there is likely to be some boost to the economy, this will be short lived. What’s more, as we have long warned, the Expo... 23rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates on hold for now The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting amid rising price pressures. However, we still think that inflation will slow in the final months of this year... 17th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan’s public finances a cause for concern Jordan’s public finances deteriorated sharply last year and fiscal consolidation is needed to put the debt position back on a sustainable footing. Sticking to austerity may prove difficult given the... 15th September 2021 · 4 mins read
