Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait’s new Emir faces tough challenges The passing of Kuwaiti’s Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah has raised some concerns over political stability in the country, and, while the transition will probably prove to be smooth, the new Emir... 29th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE likely to continue with gradual monetary easing The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50bps at Thursday’s MPC meeting after a six month pause to the loosening cycle. Policymakers are likely to remain cautious about future easing... 25th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer resilience unlikely to last Consumer spending in Saudi Arabia seems to have bounced back quickly in recent months, but the steep VAT hike and the suspension of the Cost of Living Allowance means that this is unlikely to be... 16th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to stay below target Egypt’s economic recovery, a fall in the pound and a small rise in global oil prices are likely to cause the headline rate of inflation to drift up over the coming months. But it is unlikely to reach... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery stutters Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has faltered in recent months and the backdrop of fiscal austerity, the partial suspension of pilgrimages and oil production cuts mean that it is likely to remain slow... 7th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Deflation in the Gulf to persist The coronavirus crisis has caused domestic demand across the Gulf to slump and deflation is likely to persist, with the key exception of Saudi Arabia. Most places are well placed to deal with the... 2nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the state of coronavirus in MENA Governments across the Gulf have managed to get on top of coronavirus outbreaks but Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, and Lebanon have seen the virus spread rapidly in recent weeks. These economies are the... 26th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external strains easing, but pound to weaken The worst of the strains in Egypt’s balance of payments is probably now over and the current account deficit should narrow over the coming quarters, but we still think that the pound will gradually... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE still reluctant to cut rates, for now The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates on hold for a fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday as policymakers remained cautious about delivering more monetary stimulus. That said, with the... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on the Israel-UAE peace deal The normalising of relations between Israel and the UAE may pave the way for similar agreements with the other Gulf countries, notably Saudi Arabia. The move might help to foster economic relations... 13th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget deficit to narrow, debt to rise Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit will narrow over the coming years as oil prices recover and the government ploughs ahead with austerity. But debt will rise further, reaching close to 40% of GDP by end... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The impact of the Beirut blast The major blast in Beirut yesterday has severe humanitarian consequences, and the incident threatens to deepen the country’s economic and political crises. 5th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts, austerity to hold back Saudi recovery The Saudi economy has embarked on a recovery in the past couple of months, but fiscal austerity and oil production cuts, as well as the ongoing suspension of pilgrimages, mean that it is likely to be... 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The future of Saudi Arabia’s oil policy Saudi Arabia has grown increasingly frustrated with other oil producers’ failure to comply with the OPEC+ oil output cuts and, while we think that the current deal will remain intact for now, the risk... 23rd July 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Sovereign debt risks growing in Tunisia Tunisia’s public finances have deteriorated sharply over the past decade and the government’s debt burden appears to be on an unsustainable path. This would be exacerbated if external financing... 8th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi past the worst but austerity will hinder recovery The Saudi economy contracted by 1% y/y in Q1 and the figures from Q2 point to an even sharper downturn in Q2 due to the coronavirus crisis. The lifting of the lockdown this month is helping to support... 30th June 2020 · 3 mins read
