Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi households at forefront of austerity drive The austerity measures announced by the Saudi government today reinforce our view that it will rely on fiscal consolidation rather than a devaluation to make the adjustment to cheap oil. The measures... 11th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A closer look at how Saudi Arabia uses its reserves There seems to be a lot of confusion as to exactly how Saudi Arabia uses its reserves to finance twin budget and current account deficits. In this Update, we shed some light on the matter. 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon heads to the IMF, but risks still abound The announcement that Lebanon will formally seek financial assistance from the IMF should help to avoid a more disorderly outcome from the country’s current debt crisis. However, we hold reservations... 1st May 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt returns to the IMF Egypt has become the latest emerging market to turn to the IMF for assistance and one of the priorities for the Fund is likely to be for the central bank to loosen its grip on the pound. That said... 27th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi can withstand pressure on riyal Pressure is mounting on Saudi Arabia’s dollar peg and, while there is some opaqueness over the full size of the Kingdom’s FX reserves, we estimate that the authorities could prop up the riyal at... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf to rely on austerity rather than devaluations The collapse in oil prices has led to renewed pressure on dollar pegs in the Gulf and, while there could be some positive effects on balance sheets from devaluations, the costs would be politically... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts mean Gulf slump to be even deeper The deal struck by OPEC and other oil producers to cut oil output sharply over the coming months will help to put a floor under oil prices, but the reduction in output simply adds to the reasons to... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt, the pound and lessons from the past Egypt’s central bank is intervening to prop up the pound, but the experience from the previous decade is that such efforts ultimately prove futile. If policymakers try to support the pound for an... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How long will the Gulf endure oil at $20pb? Brent crude is closing in on $20pb and, if there are no signs of a recovery in the coming months, the chances that Saudi Arabia pushes for fresh oil output cuts will grow. Meanwhile, we are... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Region to suffer worst downturn since the 1980s Governments across the Middle East and North Africa have taken increasingly draconian steps over the past couple of weeks to contain the coronavirus outbreak and, as a result, there will be much more... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tourism slump to hit parts of the region hard Efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak look set to hit tourism sectors across the MENA region hard. The North African economies, as well as Dubai, Lebanon and Jordan, are most vulnerable and the... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will the Gulf’s dollar pegs survive the fall in oil prices? The collapse in oil prices over the past week has put pressure on the Gulf’s dollar pegs, but we think that a wave of devaluations is extremely unlikely. Large foreign exchange savings provide... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai the most vulnerable to coronavirus outbreak Efforts to contain the coronavirus will weigh heavily on non-oil sectors across the MENA region over the coming weeks and months. Dubai is the most vulnerable and this could ultimately ignite fears... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How long can Saudi Arabia weather low oil prices? The fact that the fall in oil prices will cause Saudi Arabia’s government to run a large budget deficit has prompted suggestions that it might have to shift oil policy to prop up prices. But the... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s oil policy shift and what it means for the Gulf The sharp fall in oil prices today will push current account and budget positions into deficit across the Gulf, but these can be financed from large savings for some time. Dollar pegs should stay... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon opts for default The news that Lebanon’s government won’t repay a $1.2bn Eurobond maturing has caused bond prices across the curve to fall and all eyes will now turn to the government’s plans to restructure its debts... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
