Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: protests and the economic impact Protests in Egypt over the past few days have ignited concerns that the country is on the cusp of another period of political upheaval. Past experience suggests that this would be disruptive for the... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the Abqaiq attacks There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil facility but, so long as the worst of the disruption to oil supplies lasts no more than a few days, the hit to... 16th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: close to a turning point, but growth to disappoint The slowdown in Qatar’s economy over the past decade should come to an end in the coming quarters as the start of production at the Barzan gas project boosts growth in the hydrocarbon sector. But... 11th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update New Saudi oil minister may push to extend OPEC+ deal The change at the helm of the Saudi energy ministry raises the chances that the current OPEC+ output deal is extended beyond its current expiry date of March next year, which would probably require... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi banks turn to wholesale borrowing The recent sharp rise in Saudi banks’ wholesale borrowing isn’t yet a major cause for concern, but it does mean that credit growth is more vulnerable to a shock that causes external financing... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown deepened in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed further in Q2, to just 1.0% y/y, as the drag from the oil sector intensified. We think that GDP growth will be even softer in the coming... 27th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle resumes with a bang The Egyptian central bank cut its overnight deposit rate by a larger-than-expected 150bp last night (to 14.25%) and with inflation likely to fall further in the coming months, much more easing lies in... 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Should we worry about Egypt’s external debt? The sharp rise in Egyptian external debt in the last few years has triggered alarm in some quarters. But it has been accompanied by a large increase in FX reserves, suggesting that risks are currently... 20th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fresh look at the Aramco IPO The planned IPO of Aramco – which reports suggest is back on – will probably make the government less inclined to impose fresh austerity measures in response to lower oil prices. The partial sale of... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain and Oman: neighbours unlikely to pull the plug Financial support from the Gulf means that Bahrain and Oman should avoid damaging devaluations and acute sovereign debt problems. Even if their governments fail to implement the fiscal tightening that... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf sovereign debt fears centre on Bahrain and Oman Government debt-to-GDP ratios across the Gulf have risen significantly over the past five years but only in Bahrain and Oman do we hold serious concerns over the health of the public finances... 31st July 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy continues to lose steam Our GDP Tracker suggests that the slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s economy at the start of this year extended into Q2 and it looks set to intensify over the rest of 2019. Our forecast for GDP growth of just... 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer strength unlikely to be sustained Household consumption in Saudi Arabia expanded at its fastest pace in more than three years in Q1 but the prospect of fresh subsidy cuts and tax hikes means that this recent strength won’t last. 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE: slowdown to be short-lived Economic growth in the UAE will slow over the rest of this year due to the impact of oil production cuts. But preparations for the World Expo will help to drive a rebound in 2020 and we expect the... 4th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s slowdown extends into Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed further at the start of Q2 as the drag from the oil sector intensified and the recent pick-up in the non-oil sector started to peter out. We... 25th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon’s electricity reform: necessary but insufficient Reform of Lebanon’s state-owned electricity company, EdL, lies at the heart of the government’s efforts to tackle the dire public finances. But while this is needed, the approved measures are unlikely... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
