Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon: how might a debt restructuring play out? Lebanon’s government is set to decide tomorrow on whether to repay a $1.2bn Eurobond maturing on Monday. Whatever the decision, a debt restructuring inevitably lies in store and the government will... 6th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The impact of the coronavirus outbreak on MENA The spread of the coronavirus has prompted us to lower our 2020 GDP growth forecasts for the MENA region by 0.5-2.0% and the risks remain skewed to the downside. The UAE is the most vulnerable economy... 3rd March 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downturn has passed its trough Our GDP Tracker suggests that the downturn in Saudi Arabia’s economy deepened in Q4 of last year and, while the worst has probably now passed, the downside risks to the outlook are mounting. 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE to pause easing cycle for a little longer The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision to keep interest rates unchanged last night for a second consecutive meeting suggests that policymakers are more concerned by the recent uptick in inflation... 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Currency adjustments lie in store in a few economies Current account positions in the largest MENA economies (particularly in the Gulf, but also Egypt) have improved over the past few years. But deficits elsewhere remain large. And Algeria, Tunisia and... 19th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon: what will an IMF deal look like? Lebanon’s new government appears to be warming to the idea of going to the IMF, which would reduce the risk of a disorderly debt default that causes severe strains in the local banking sector. But... 13th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Moroccan car sector to drive recovery this year Morocco’s economy has slowed over the past few years, but we think that a recovery will take hold in 2020. Further out, we expect that the country will record growth in excess of 5% a year by 2030. 5th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A poor end to the decade for Saudi Arabia’s economy Our GDP Tracker suggests that the downturn in Saudi Arabia’s economy deepened at the end of last year as the drag from oil production cuts intensified. A recovery is likely to take hold this year, but... 27th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pound strength unlikely to last The Egyptian pound has strengthened further at the start of this year but it is now making exports uncompetitive and, with support from high real interest rates likely to fade, the currency will... 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE pauses for breath, but more rate cuts still in store In a surprise move, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold yesterday even though policymakers don’t seem to be worried by the recent rise in inflation. We think that the easing... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman: new Sultan faces big economic challenges The swift appointment of Haitham bin Tariq as the Sultan of Oman, following the death of Sultan Qaabos, has eased fears that the country would enter a prolonged period of political uncertainty. But... 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update US-Iran tensions and the threat to the rest of MENA Fears of a direct conflict between the US and Iran have eased over the past day or so, but the risk has not disappeared and the rest of the MENA region is vulnerable to any retaliation by Tehran... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s behind the weakness in the Gulf? The Gulf states are likely to have recorded their second weakest pace of aggregate growth since the global financial crisis in 2019 due to oil output cuts and poor performances from non-oil sectors... 7th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Soleimani’s death and the threat of US-Iran war The assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a major figure in the Iranian regime, in a US airstrike last night has significantly raised the chances of an outright conflict between the US and Iran. We’ve... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2020 budget: austerity makes a comeback Saudi Arabia’s 2020 budget makes clear that the authorities are preparing for a prolonged period of low oil prices by introducing fresh fiscal austerity. This, combined with the deeper oil production... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
