Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain & Oman: austerity and Gulf help needed The rally in oil prices has opened the door for some of the larger Gulf economies to loosen fiscal policy, but governments in Bahrain and Oman will need to continue tightening to repair their dire... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rising inflation to delay resumption of CBE’s easing The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting amid rising price pressures. Against this backdrop, we think that the central bank is likely to delay the... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the energy price surge mean for the Gulf? Higher oil and gas revenues are likely to prompt a modest shift to looser fiscal policy in the large Gulf economies, although Bahrain and Oman will still need to stick to austerity. Meanwhile, if OPEC... 20th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s recovery facing several headwinds Egypt’s economy has emerged from the COVID-19 crisis relatively well, but the country’s lagging vaccine rollout, a slow return of international tourists and tight fiscal policy mean that the recovery... 6th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai World Expo: near-term boost, debt risks linger The long-awaited World Expo in Dubai will get underway next Friday and while there is likely to be some boost to the economy, this will be short lived. What’s more, as we have long warned, the Expo... 23rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates on hold for now The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting amid rising price pressures. However, we still think that inflation will slow in the final months of this year... 17th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan’s public finances a cause for concern Jordan’s public finances deteriorated sharply last year and fiscal consolidation is needed to put the debt position back on a sustainable footing. Sticking to austerity may prove difficult given the... 15th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic recovery hits a bump in the road Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery lost some steam in Q3 but, with virus restrictions easing further and oil production rising, GDP growth will strengthen over the rest of this year and next. 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s recovery to surprise on the upside Morocco’s strong vaccine rollout and a rebound in the agricultural sector will support a robust recovery over the coming quarters. Although a slow return of tourists and fiscal consolidation will act... 2nd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A dive into Saudi Arabia’s balance of payments A rise in oil prices has supported an improvement in Saudi Arabia’s current account position, which should be in surplus over the coming years. That, combined with signs that the sovereign wealth fund... 16th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rate cuts still on the cards The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept its policy rate on hold on Thursday, and we continue to hold a non-consensus view that a fall in inflation later in the year will allow the CBE to resume its... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Saudi economy picking up pace Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery appears to have been quite strong in Q2 and the further easing of virus restrictions and rising oil production means that GDP growth will continue to gather steam over... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Tunisia: political turmoil further raises debt risks The decision by Tunisia’s President Kais Saied to sack the prime minister and freeze parliament has raised serious concerns about the future of democracy in the country and couldn’t come at a worse... 26th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi inflation to slump, risks lie to the downside Saudi inflation is set to fall sharply in July as last year’s VAT hike falls out of the annual comparison. While there will be some upwards inflation pressure from the re-opening of the economy and... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery gathering pace Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery seems to have got back on track in Q2 and, as virus restrictions are eased further and oil production cuts are scaled back, a strong second half of the year lies in... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The latest on COVID-19 and vaccines in MENA Virus numbers have fallen in the past few months in the MENA region and a rapid vaccine rollout should allow most of the Gulf economies, as well as Morocco, to lift restrictions further over the... 21st June 2021 · 4 mins read
