Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Mar.) The collapse in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in March to its lowest level ever supports our view that consumption will fall off a cliff in Q2. Almost all indicators plummeted, suggesting the... 8th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Feb.) The slight rise in machinery orders in February suggests that business investment was weathering virus-related disruption well back then. But with measures to contain the virus severely harming... 8th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Feb.) Wage growth weakened a little in February and we think it won’t be long before it turns negative as the coronavirus outbreak generates large amounts of slack in the labour market. 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) While the Q1 Tankan survey held up slightly better than we were expecting, it still showed a marked deterioration in business conditions. And with sentiment set to deteriorate further as lockdowns... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) Activity indicators show that the economy continued to expand in February. Unfortunately, domestic and external demand have since collapsed, so output is set to contract sharply this year. 31st March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Mar.) While the manufacturing PMI didn’t fall as sharply as we had anticipated in March, the plunge in the services sector underlines that the coronavirus outbreak will result in a sharp slowdown in... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation fell in February, and we expect it to moderate sharply this year as capacity shortages evaporate and the coronavirus opens up slack in the economy. By far the deepest downturn since 2009... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Feb.) Exports bounced back in February even as China’s economy came to a standstill. But with the coronavirus now disrupting economic activity across the globe, that resilience won’t last. 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jan.) The slight rise in machinery orders in January suggests that business investment was recovering – albeit slowly – before the coronavirus began to dent economic activity from all angles. We think a... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) The plunge in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in February to its lowest level since the 2011 tsunami suggests that the intensified spread of the coronavirus will cause consumer spending to fall... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Revised) A disastrous Q4 following the sales tax hike was shown to have been even worse in the second estimate of GDP. That supports our bearish view that output will fall by 1% this year. It also further... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jan.) The sharp rise in wage growth in January was down to yet another sampling distortion. A more accurate measure showed that wage growth softened and we expect labour earnings to continue to disappoint... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The coronavirus is likely to knock off course the slight recovery observed in the manufacturing and retail sectors last month. As such, we expect the unemployment rate to rise further over the coming... 28th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Feb.) The renewed drop in the manufacturing PMI coupled with a slump in the services PMI suggests that the coronavirus has started to take a toll on Japan’s economy. 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Headline inflation edged down in January and we expect it to moderate further this year as capacity shortages diminish. A contraction in GDP this year should lead to easing price pressures, offsetting... 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Dec.) & External Trade (Jan.) Exports fell by less than expected last month but net trade is set to be a major drag on GDP growth this quarter. Coronavirus-related disruption should contribute to net trade knocking around 0.6%pts... 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
