Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Despite its less severe restrictions on activity, Japan’s economy was hit just as hard by the virus in Q2 as many other large economies. However, we think GDP will converge to its pre-virus path... 17th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jun.) Wage growth improved a little in June and household incomes are rebounding now that most furloughed workers are back in work. Meanwhile, the surge “core” household spending in June supports our view... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Jun.) The sharp drop in the number of furloughed workers and the rise in industrial production in June bodes well for the recovery in economic activity in the second half of the year. But while the... 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The surge in retail sales in June suggests that consumer spending will rebound across Q3 even if some restrictions on activity are reimposed to curb the renewed spread of the virus. 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Jul.) Both the manufacturing and the services PMI only improved a little bit in July which suggests that the recovery from the pandemic will be more protracted than elsewhere. 22nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) While headline inflation was unchanged for the third-straight month in June, we expect it to fall much further over the medium-term. We think inflation will turn consistently negative in the second... 21st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jun.) Export volumes were little changed in June but they should rebound soon as many of Japan’s trading partners are on the mend. By contrast, import volumes never fell much despite the slump in domestic... 20th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May) The slight rise in machinery orders in May suggests that non-residential investment may have slumped a little less than we were anticipating in Q2. However, with business sentiment remaining weak, we... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) Wage growth weakened further in May, but we think household incomes are recovering as furloughed workers either return to work or receive their mandatory leave allowance. 7th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) While business conditions collapsed in the Q2 Tankan, with economic activity now recovering that probably marks the trough. And surprisingly resilient investment forecasts for the upcoming fiscal year... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (May) The sharp drop in the number of furloughed workers in May supports our view that household incomes will rebound in the second half of the year. And while industrial production plunged again in May, it... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (May) The subdued rise in retail sales in May suggests that the lifting of the state of emergency didn’t provide a big boost to consumption and we reiterate our forecast of a 9% q/q plunge in Q2 GDP. And... 29th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Jun.) While the manufacturing PMI weakened a little further in June, the rebound in the services PMI has further to run as virus-related restrictions are eased. 23rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Headline inflation was unchanged last month but the slow recovery in demand over the coming months should cause excess capacity to rise further. As such, we expect inflation to turn consistently... 19th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (May) Import values fell much more than export values in May but that was mostly due to lower crude oil prices. Across Q2, net trade provided a sizeable drag on GDP growth. However, conditions should... 17th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Apr.) The large fall in machinery orders in April supports our forecast that non-residential investment will slump in Q2. With business confidence subdued, a recovery before the end of the year is unlikely. 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
