Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Preliminary) The sharp drop in output after October’s sales tax hike supports our view that Japan’s economy will shrink this year. But with capacity shortages still tight and underlying inflation holding up, we... 17th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jan.) The marked improvement in the Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in January suggests household spending bounced back strongly last month with no sign of a drag on sentiment from the coronavirus. Both... 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.) With the unemployment rate set to rise, we expect the softness of wage growth in December to continue into 2020. We are forecasting a disappointing 0.2% increase in labour cash earnings this year. 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) While consumer spending remained subdued in December following October’s sales tax hike, the continued resilience of the labour market suggests that this has yet to discourage firms from hiring new... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Consumer confidence was unchanged in January, suggesting households are still reluctant to spend in the wake of the sales tax hike. We think consumer spending will remain soft, which should contribute... 29th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) January’s flash manufacturing PMI showed activity in the sector has finally started to rebound. That’s consistent with recent signs of recovery in domestic and global demand. However, we think any... 24th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) While headline inflation rose sharply again in December, we expect it to settle at around 0.5% this year. Higher energy inflation is likely to be offset by weaker underlying price pressures caused by... 24th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Dec.) We estimate that net trade boosted GDP growth by around 0.4 percentage points in Q4. However, much of that reflects soft domestic demand following October’s sales tax hike. We expect the external... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Nov.) The surge in “core” machinery orders in November was largely due to a spike in transport and postal activities and we still expect non-residential investment to fall this year. Orders of manufacturing... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) The small improvement in the Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in December suggests household spending was slow to recover from October’s sales tax hike. Both household-related activity and employment... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Consumer confidence edged up in December and suggests that consumption continues to recover from the slump after October’s sales tax hike. 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.) Overall wage growth was the weakest it has been in six months in November and the increase in the unemployment rate we are anticipating should ensure it will remain soft over the coming months. We are... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Headline inflation rose sharply in November but we think it will moderate over the coming months as capacity shortages diminish. But we are not convinced that the Bank of Japan will respond by cutting... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Nov.) Import volumes probably fell more sharply than export volumes in Q4 so net trade should have provided a boost to GDP growth. That’s hardly a cause for optimism though as the weakness in imports... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) December’s flash manufacturing PMI indicates that activity in the sector continues to shrink. However, the rebound in the global manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector will turn a corner soon. 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) The Q4 Tankan was a mixed bag rather than the disaster that many analysts were anticipating. As such, it probably won’t convince the Bank of Japan to ease policy next week. 13th December 2019 · 2 mins read
