Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Oct.) The composite PMI only edged up marginally in October, consistent with our view that the recovery will slow in the fourth quarter. 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) Headline inflation dropped to zero September, and we think it be negative over the coming months before hovering around zero throughout most of next year. 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Sep.) Exports continued to rise at a strong pace in September and we think they should return to pre-virus levels before the end of the year. By contrast, the recovery in imports has only just begun so net... 19th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) - We are re-sending this publication to all Clients due to a technical error with our emailing system this morning. We apologise for any inconvenience caused. - The unemployment rate edged up again in... 2nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) The rebound in the Q3 Tankan fell short of expectations and suggests that the recovery could be protracted. And while the survey indicates that the labour market will soon turn the corner, firms’... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.) Retail sales rebounded back to pre-virus levels in August as the second wave began to dissipate, and we expect consumer spending to recover further over the coming months. Meanwhile, industrial... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Sep.) The September flash PMIs didn’t improve much further even as Japan’s second virus wave has abated. Nevertheless, the survey points to a continued pick-up in consumption, exports and industrial output. 23rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) While headline inflation fell in August, excluding the government’s domestic travel subsidy scheme it showed a renewed pick up. However, we still think inflation will fall much further into negative... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Aug.) Exports continued to recover in August while import volumes fell. Indeed, we expect net trade to provide a sizeable boost to growth this quarter following a huge drag in Q2. 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jul.) While machinery orders rose in July we still expect non-residential investment to weaken further in Q3. And with business sentiment set to remain weak for the forseeable future, any rebound in... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) & GDP (Q2 Revised) Wage growth improved in July and household incomes are likely to rebound further as more workers who lost their jobs during the state of emergency find employment again. Meanwhile, the second estimate... 8th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) The unemployment rate edged higher in July, and we expect it to rise further over the coming months despite a continued recovery in economic activity. Meanwhile, the further fall in the number of... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jul.) While retail sales fell in July, consumer spending should continue to recover over the coming months. Meanwhile, industrial production rose sharply in July and should also rebound further. 31st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Aug.) The stagnation in Japan’s composite PMI in August is consistent with our view that the second virus wave has brought the recovery to a standstill but won’t cause a renewed downturn. 21st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Inflation excluding fresh food and energy was just over zero in July and we think it won’t be long before it turns negative. We expect sluggish demand to overwhelm the impact of social distancing... 21st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jul.) & Machinery Orders (Jun.) The July trade data are consistent with our view that net exports will provide a large boost to Q3 GDP growth. However, the fall in machinery orders to a seven-year low bodes ill for business... 19th August 2020 · 3 mins read