Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.) Wage growth accelerated in June as regular earnings stopped falling and summer bonuses rose. However, wages increased even faster once we allow for sampling changes that will probably only disappear... 6th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Jun.) While industrial production rebounded in the second quarter, we still expect GDP growth to slow. Meanwhile, we think that the labour market won’t remain as tight as it is now as subdued economic... 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Retail sales values were flat in June but broader measures of consumer spending still suggest that private consumption picked up in the second quarter. Some of that strength in Q2 was probably due to... 29th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Inflation was unchanged in June and while the consumption tax and the introduction of free childcare will muddy the waters, we expect underlying inflation to fall towards zero in 2020. 19th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jun.) The sharp narrowing of the trade deficit in June isn’t indicative of developments in trade volumes across the second quarter as import volumes outpaced export volumes. We expect the resulting drag... 18th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) Wages kept falling in May even though the labour market remained very tight. That reflects sampling changes which have lowered the aggregate wage level. As those distortions start to fade, wage growth... 9th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May) Despite a slump in May, machinery orders point to broadly stable capital spending in the second quarter. Even so, we expect investment growth to slow sharply over the coming quarters. 8th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) The Tankan’s all industry index fell at a slower pace in the second quarter than in the first, which suggests that the economy may be past the worst. That said, the slowdown has started to ease... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (May) While the labour market remains tight, the drop in the job-to-applicant ratio is an early sign that it will slacken over coming months. Meanwhile, the jump in industrial production and capital goods... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (May) The solid rise in retail sales values in May suggests that consumption growth will be quite strong in the second quarter and we think that it will continue to expand at a rapid rate in the third... 27th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The slowdown in May’s inflation was largely broad-based, and we expect it to turn negative by the end of the year. However, the Bank of Japan won’t be overly concerned as this will be mostly driven by... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (May) The wider trade deficit in May was a result of a sharp fall in exports and a slight fall in imports. Although export volumes are unlikely to be as weak as they were in the last quarter, a likely... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Apr.) While machinery orders rose for the third straight month in April, we still expect business investment growth to slow this year as rising uncertainty over the economic outlook takes its toll. 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) Although wage growth recovered in April, sampling distortions mean that it remains much weaker than what is implied by the tightness of labour market. But even once those distortions abate, a... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market (Apr.) & Tokyo CPI (May) The rebound in industrial output in April coupled with upbeat forecasts for May suggests that the manufacturing sector will return to growth in Q2. However, we still expect the labour market to... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The surge in April’s headline inflation was accompanied by an acceleration in underlying inflation, which rose to its highest in almost three years. However, we suspect that underlying inflation will... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
