Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Oct.) The sharp fall in “core” machinery orders in October supports our view that there will be a sizeable drop-off in business investment this quarter. We expect a 1.0% q/q fall in non-residential... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) November’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) points to a slight rebound in consumer spending last month. However, the deterioration in manufacturing and employment conditions underline that the economy... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 Revised) While Japan’s economy expanded more sharply ahead of the sales tax hike than most had anticipated, output probably fell sharply in the fourth quarter. While the consensus expects the economy to keep... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Oct.) Wage growth remained relatively strong in October but with the labour market loosening, we think earnings growth will settle around 0.5%. Meanwhile, the plunge in “core” household spending in October... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Capital Spending (Q3) Today’s capital spending data suggest that business investment last quarter was in line with what was initially reported. Therefore, we don’t expect a major revision to GDP growth in next week’s... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharp fall in industrial production in October suggests the economy might have been hit harder by the sales tax hike than we were expecting. And while the unemployment rate remained unchanged in... 29th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Retail sales values fell more sharply in October than after previous sales tax hikes, but that largely reflects the smaller rise in prices this time around. Given that households brought forward less... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The manufacturing PMI edged up in November but has yet to break out of the range it’s hovered in since the start of the year. However, the recent improvement in the global manufacturing PMI suggests... 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The muted rise in inflation in October supports our view that the recent sales tax hike won’t derail consumer spending. And while underlying inflation should weaken further as spare capacity mounts... 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Oct.) Import volumes fell much less in October than after the 2014 sales tax hike, supporting our view that the tax hike will dent domestic demand less this time around. Export volumes also fell in monthly... 20th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 Preliminary) The slowdown in GDP growth in the third quarter isn’t too worrying as it reduces the chances of a slump in output after October’s sales tax hike. As such, we reiterate our view that the Bank of Japan... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Sep.) The continued fall in machinery orders suggests that the recent strength in capital goods shipments won’t last. While we expect the preliminary estimate of GDP due on Thursday to show a 1.0% q/q rise... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Household Spending & Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) The surge in household spending in September adds to the evidence of a last-minute spending spree ahead of October’s sales tax hike. While that raises the chances of a deep slump in the following... 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The jump in the unemployment rate in September has further to run as new job offers are drying up. That increases the chances that the Bank of Japan will eventually have to cut interest rates. 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) While industrial production contracted in the third quarter, robust business investment, a boost from net trade and soaring consumer spending should have ensured a strong rise in Q3 GDP. However, the... 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The surge in retail sales ahead of the sales tax hike on 1st October was as large as the one seen before 1997’s sales tax hike. We’ve pencilled in a 1.7% q/q slump in consumption in the fourth quarter... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
