Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The decline in the manufacturing PMI to a three-year low in October is consistent with continued falls in industrial output. But a slump in inventories could be a sign that firms have underestimated... 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Sep.) Export volumes probably rebounded in the third quarter which should provide some relief for the Bank of Japan. But as external demand is set to weaken further, we think export volumes will fall at a... 21st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The fall in inflation to a two-year low in September has further to run, increasing the pressure on the Bank of Japan to provide additional stimulus. 18th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Aug.) The continued fall in machinery orders in August suggest that a last-minute investment rush ahead of October’s tax hike is looking increasingly unlikely. Either way, business investment will probably... 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Aug.) Growth in regular earnings has been broadly steady around 0.5% in recent months. And while we expect the unemployment rate to rise, wage growth may climb to 1.0% over the coming months. 8th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) & Labour Market (Aug.) The latest Tankan survey shows that business conditions are holding up better than expected while the labour market remains very tight. And even though firms are turning more cautious about the... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.) The surge in retail sales in August underlines that a last-minute spending in spree ahead of the sales tax hike is still possible. That means that consumption may fall by more than the 1.3% q/q drop... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The slowdown in headline inflation in August has further to run once the sales tax hike leads to weaker price pressures. We think that inflation will eventually fall which will raise the clamour for... 20th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Aug.) The fall in exports in August still leaves open the possibility of a rebound across the third quarter which means that the previous drag that net trade had on growth may have eased. The big picture... 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jul.) The drop in machinery orders in July didn’t reverse the jump in June and we still think that business investment rose at a strong pace in Q3. However, a renewed fall after October’s sales tax hike is... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) The drop in labour cash earnings in July was driven by volatile bonus payments whereas regular earnings accelerated. While we expect the unemployment rate to rise again before long, wage growth should... 6th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) The weakness in retail sales in July underlines that consumers have yet to bring forward spending ahead of October’s sales tax hike. That suggests that consumption won’t fall off a cliff once the tax... 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Headline inflation fell in July despite a rise in underlying inflation. Allowing for the impact of policy moves, we think that underlying inflation will fall towards zero before long. 23rd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jul.) Today’s external trade figures show that the slump in export volumes is abating. But with imports set to soar ahead of the sales tax hike, net trade will probably remain a drag on GDP growth in Q3. 19th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jun.) The surge in machinery orders in June supports our view that investment spending will continue to expand at a rapid pace in the third quarter. However, we expect a renewed drop after October’s sales... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Preliminary) GDP rose more quickly than most had anticipated in the second quarter and the details were unequivocally strong. And while the economy will lose momentum after October’s sales tax hike, our view... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
